Football season is fast approaching! We only have 44 more days until the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers kick off the season. Or, if you’re like me and have to break down and compartmentalize periods of time into more manageable lengths, we’re only two weeks away from being able to say we’re just a month away from NFL football. Got it?
Fantasy draft season is already underway. I’m seeing people jumping into mock draft lobbies and gearing up for the main event. My draft is scheduled for August 31, but I’m starting to get my notes together and thought I could pass along a realization that I had last night…
It’s time for a paradigm shift in fantasy football, and you need to be prepared for the change.
Sure, it happens to a certain extent every season, but I’m betting 2016 is going to be the season that turns everything upside-down. As for your involvement, don’t be tied to name value. There’s a reason Arian Foster is going to be available in the 10th round of your draft.
The state of the running back position
For years, Adrian Peterson has been the standard bearer in fantasy football. He won’t completely fall off the face of the Earth, but this could very well be the season that sees the decline of the Vikings great commence. Elsewhere, Jamaal Charles is a huge injury risk as a RB1. If you can get him in the second round, pull the trigger, but you cannot depend on him to be your workhorse. Guys like Matt Forte, Frank Gore, and Chris Johnson aren’t going to win you a championship anymore. If you invest a first-third round draft pick in any of these three, you are going to be disappointed.
Spend the pick on someone like Lamar Miller or Thomas Rawls. Rawls was one of the best waiver wire claims of 2015, and now that Marshawn Lynch has retired, should see an expanded role in the Seahawks offense. This, of course, assuming he can stay healthy. Miller joins the Houston Texans, where Bill O’Brien will surely figure out a way to use him. The Miami Dolphins never developed Miller into the feature back he has the potential to be.
As for the running backs who could threaten Peterson’s spot atop the scoring leaders, look no further than Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson. Any or all of these guys could overtake Peterson as the best back in fantasy football. As a matter of fact, Freeman already did in 2015. It’s time to look towards the future.
The state of the wide receiver position
Calvin Johnson, perhaps the most dominant athlete of his era, has retired from football….so, drafting him really wouldn’t make sense. I mean – your draft buddies would disown you. You would lose any credibility you ever had by drafting a retired player. You would become a miserable human being. Okay, that last bit was a bit hateful….apologies.
Anyway, Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald both experienced career resurgences in 2015, but counting on them to maintain that WR1-level success would be a bit desperate. The times they are a changing.
DeAndre Hopkins is poised to take one of these spots for years to come after a breakout 2015. Antonio Brown has become the best receiver in the NFL. He’s still in his prime, and while no one is going to overtake him easily, Odell Beckham, Jr. has certainly proven he can play at an elite level. Also, watch out for Brandin Cooks to break out and become an elite WR1 this season.
There’s an entirely new crop of receivers that will contend for top-10 spots (I haven’t even mentioned Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, or Allen Hurns) – don’t pass on one for a Randall Cobb or a Demaryius Thomas. The ship may have sailed for those guys.
The state of the quarterback position
If you’re willing to wait late in the draft for a quarterback, you can get decent value in Drew Brees, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers. But, gone are the days when these guys went in the first few rounds. It’s a new era in the NFL – teams are passing like crazy, more dual-threat quarterbacks are translating well to the NFL, and the updated rules definitely favor quarterbacks and the vertical passing game.
Ten years ago, no fantasy draft had quarterbacks taken in the first round. It always felt like eight straight running backs were selected, with a couple of receivers thrown in at the end of the round. Now, two or three quarterbacks are sneaking into the first round.
Tom Brady was ranked anywhere from seventh to tenth on a lot of lists, and that was before the suspension. Dynamic young quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson have emerged as the go-to’s for early round selections. Don’t sleep on Blake Bortles in 2016, either.
Things change on a yearly basis, but we’re on the precipice of a major change in regards to the names we see in the first round annually. It’s a change that hasn’t happened since guys like Peterson, Charles, and Foster leapt over LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and Brian Westbrook.
All I’m saying is recognize the trend and get ahead of it. This may be the year to take Gurley over Peterson, Bortles over Brady, or Cooks over Marshall.
My current top 10 for 2016
10. DeAndre Hopkins – There’s no reason to think that Hopkins is slowing down after a monstrous 2015 breakout campaign. I feel sorry for defensive backs who have to cover this guy in the red zone. Double digit touchdowns in 2016.
9. Devonta Freeman – Sure, the Atlanta Falcons petered off in 2015. Nonetheless, Freeman was a dynamic force on offense and scored a ton of touchdowns. That isn’t going to change.
8. Lamar Miller – I’m buying in on Miller in Houston. The Texans are going to rely on the run game, and Miami never knew how to use him. For some unknown reason, he doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear on his body. He’s set to have a breakout season.
7. Russell Wilson – When the running game stalled for the Seahawks last season, Wilson took to the air in grandiose fashion. I can’t imagine Pete Carroll will want to change much after a season that nearly saw his team go to a third consecutive NFC Championship. Wilson is the one of two quarterbacks worthy of a first round selection.
6. Adrian Peterson – I’m calling it…this is the year that Peterson slides off the mountaintop of fantasy football. He isn’t getting any younger, and reports have surfaced claiming Mike Zimmer wants the Vikings to run more out of the shotgun…that’s not something Peterson excels at. He’ll still be an effective RB1, of course, but I’d take a couple of backs before him.
5. Odell Beckham, Jr. – A healthy ODB playing on a Giants offense that made huge strides in fortifying the offense in the offseason? Yeah, I’m on board with him being a top five pick this season.
4. Cam Newton – Is he the LeBron James of football? Or, is LeBron James the Cam Newton of basketball? The debate rages on. One thing is certain: Cam Newton is the Cam Newton of fantasy football, and he’ll have a real shot at back-to-back years of scoring the most fantasy points of the season.
3. David Johnson – Johnson was given the ball and took off like a rocket was strapped to his back at the end of 2015. Expect him to get a heavy workload in 2016, and notch huge numbers in PPR formats.
2. Antonio Brown – Nothing is going to change for the production machine that Brown is. He’ll accumulate a ton of receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Particularly, playing against the weak secondaries of the AFC North. If he’s healthy, he’s going to be your WR1 every week.
1. Todd Gurley – Los Angeles is going to line up and hand the ball off to this beast probably 80 times a game. Bottom line: Gurley is going to straight up eat people and their dreams this season.
Stoney Keeley is the editor of the SoBros Network, Tennessee Titans Featured Analyst for Pro Football Spot, and covers the WWE for WrestlingNews.co. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley,@PFSpot, @WrestlingNewsCo
Follow us on Twitter @SoBrosNetwork
