The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Foxboro, Massachusetts to play the New England Patriots in the 2017 AFC Championship on Sunday at 2:05 PM CST. It looks like weather will not be an issue, as the current forecast is calling for partly cloudly skies and mild 48 degrees. The upstart Jags are led by head coach Doug Marrone, and are looking to shock the greatest dynasty in NFL history.
Can the Jags do it? Of course – they wouldn’t have made it this far if they couldn’t. They have one of the top two defenses in the entire league. Probably the best secondary in the NFL. A lot of people have pointed out the potential match-up issues the Jags present to the Patriots. But, the Pats have been in similar situations many times before. They are far more experienced than the Jags, and should be well-prepared for that defense.
The Stats
The Patriots defense will have their hands full with the Jags’ workhorse running back Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns season. He’s gotten particularly hot in the last couple of weeks, and posted three touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
Dion Lewis leads the Patriots in rushing yards with 896, but the team uses more of a committee approach, and given his success in the postseason, I expect James White to be utilized heavily.
There’s no answer for guarding Rob Gronkowski, who amassed 1,084 receiving yards and eight touchdowns this season. Gronk continues to make his case to be the greatest tight end in NFL history, and will undoubtedly be the biggest headache for the Jags on Sunday.
As for the Jags, their wide receiving corps was ravaged by injury this season. Keelan Cole is the leading receiver on the team with 748 receiving yards, but a healthy Marqise Lee is the best potential threat they have.
The Patriots scored the second most points in the NFL this season, but believe it or not, the Jags aren’t far behind them (5th). The Pats pass for 276.1 yards per game to the Jags’ 224. But, the Jags trump them in rushing yards per game with 141.4, a number that also led the NFL this season.
The Jags boast the best secondary in the NFL from a yards allowed perspective, but their run defense ranks 21st. I expect the Pats will try and exploit that with Dion Lewis and James White.
As for the Pats, their defense gives up a ton of yards (20th in run defense, 30th in pass defense), but they’re 5th in points allowed. Scoring in the red zone is going to be a battle for the Jags offense.
What Las Vegas Thinks…
Our friends in the desert think the Patriots will be nine points better than the Jaguars, and I think it’s pretty hard to bet against New England, no matter how big the spread is for a conference championship.
The over/under is set around 46. That’s an interesting number, because I could totally see the both of these defenses bowing up and keeping points at a minimum. At the same time, the Jags have shown an ability to manufacture points when they need to and adjust to the flow of a game. We all know how well the Pats can move the ball and score. So, I say take the over.
The Dark Horse
Patriots: It feels weird to say James White here given how well-known his postseason successes are. But, I don’t see the national media talking about what he threat is. To me, White against the Jags run defense is the key match-up for the Pats offense.
Jaguars: Bill Belichick is going to do everything he can to stuff the Jags run game. So, this game could come down to Blake Bortles. Before you laugh at that, Bortles has been instrumental in the last two Jags wins. The guy can make some plays with his legs and extend drives. We’ll see.
Final Prediction
I, like many others, am well aware of the match-up issues the Jags present to the Patriots. But, I also said that the Titans had the tools to beat the Patriots. I don’t think you can bet against New England in this spot, as they’ve proven time and time again.
Jacksonville 17
New England 28
Check out my NFC Championship preview (coming soon).
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Alabama Crimson Tide football, the WWE, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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