I’m back. While us Tennesseans wait for the official legalization of online sports betting, I’m holding off with DFS MLB. On 5-14-19, I created a team that finished 21st out of 47,562 participants in the MLB $40K mini-MAX contest. The lineup finished with 205.9 points. This turned a $1 entry fee into a $40 payout. I created seven lineups. All of them paid out. Seven dollars worth of entry fees morphed into $55 of payouts.
I’ve completed a study guide on this lineup. It’s not a winner, but it gives gamers a perspective when I’m finding success as opposed to projecting others’ game-theorizing tactics. My previous study guides have analyzed what others had done to create winning lineups. Completing those tutorials helped me to create enhanced lineups.
Let’s analyze my $40 DFS MLB lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $40 Lineup: TNYooper, 5-14-19
This lineup used $49,800 of its $50000 salary. The slate featured 12 matchups.
May is a good time for DFS MLB gamers who focus on sabermetric progressions and regressions. Last year around this time, I created my best paying lineup: a top-15 finish that netted me $750. This 5-14-19 lineup scored nearly 35 points higher than that $750 piece. It just happened to end as a higher than normal scoring night. Finishing 21st isn’t bad. Not when there are nearly 50,000 submissions.
SP: Chris Sale ($10800, 32.8%, 43.95)
SP: Joe Musgrove ($6500, 9.3%, 27.95)
Combined Salary: $17300
Points: 71.90
More often than not, I’ve learned to use a large chunk of salary on an elite pitcher. If I don’t, then I’m often leaving too much leftover salary. I’ll ignore great plays in the low-tier and mid-tier price ranges. I found myself playing the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees almost nightly. The luxury here is that, even if stud pitchers give up runs, most of them can salvage their scores because of strikeout totals. Sale’s 17 strikeouts had him score nearly as high as Mike Fiers during last week’s no-hitter.
Joe Musgrove was coming off a couple duds. I like taking risks on pitchers with SIERAs that don’t match their ERAs. Combining a high-strikeout stud pitcher with a value pitcher who’s a potential progressor creates enough affordability to create many different lineup options.
C: Yadier Molina ($3800, 6.2%, 23)
2B: Kolten Wong ($3700, 4.0%, 23)
3B: Matt Carpenter ($3700, 19.4%, 11)
OF: Dexter Fowler ($3500, 4.8%, 25)
Combined Salary: $14700
Points: 82.0
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz entered this contest with a 5.94 ERA. Sabermetrics supported his bad ERA with a 5.66 SIERA and a .255 BABIP that’s .46 lower than his career norm. His strikeout totals are way down. Another regression performance wasn’t out of the question.
I prefer using lineup stacks. The goal is to find an affordable stack covering a team that scores a lot of runs. Because baseball has so much variance, it can make sense to focus on cheaper hitters when you’re projecting higher scoring contests. Maximize value. A good way to find productive catchers is to use one from your lineup stack. Often, games featuring 10-plus runs have most of the production coming from the bottom of the order.
The St. Louis Cardinals scored 14 runs. I was fortunate enough that focusing on 6-8, 1 hitters paid off. Typically, this works better with American League teams because there’s no automatic out at the No. 9 hole. The affordability of St. Louis’s hitters gave me a chance to use elite hitters who faced great matchups.
OF: J.D. Martinez ($5300, 9.2%, 17)
1B: Steve Pearce ($3200, 8.6%, 0)
Combined Salary: $8500
Points: 17.0
A couple lefty-bashers against Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. Unfortunately, Pearce couldn’t break out of a massive slump that has bogged down his entire season. Just a little more from Pearce would’ve had this lineup challenge for a top-10 finish.
OF: George Springer ($5800, 16.3%, 25)
The Houston Astros leadoff hitter was coming off Co-AL Player of the Week honors. Albeit a hefty salary, Springer is playing on one of MLB’s hottest offenses. They were facing a Triple-A callup in Detroit Tigers southpaw Ryan Carpenter who had a career 7.90 ERA. Springer has a career 155wRC+ and .247 ISO against LHP. Eat the chalk.
SS: Corey Seager ($3500, 2.2%, 10)
Needed a cheap filler to finish out the lineup. While Seager has started slow, I was willing to take a risk on the Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop because he was facing a pitcher (Chris Paddack) whose .176 BABIP and 1.55 ERA were due for major regressions. May 14 was the night for regression. Seager took advantage with a couple hits and a run scored.
DFS MLB Study Guides of My Teams (TNYooper)
Study Guides Covering Other Winners:
Lixitandstixit, $7.5K, 5-10-18
NBA Load Management: Where Amazing Never Happens
WWE Must Start Creating Larger-Than-Life Stars
Athletes, Leagues Must Address Fan Misconduct on Social Media, at Live Events
MLB or NFL? Kyler Murray Decision Isn’t Complicated
Le’Veon Bell Made Wise Choice to Sit Out 2018 NFL Season
Joshua Huffman was born and edumacated in Middle Tennessee. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Follow him on Twitter (although I rarely use it).
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