Welcome all degenerate gamblers back into my weekly American football column, Tank the 401k. Here, I will divulge all my eagle-eyed opinions on the upcoming week. Call your bookie and empty those retirement accounts (actually, don’t really do that – this is just sarcasm. My lawyers say I shouldn’t claim to be an expert on anything)!
I know, I know – just two weeks ago, I sat here and said I was done making picks on college football. And, hell – maybe I’ll still split this week’s Tank the 401k up into a college edition and NFL edition. But, the odds on college games this week are simply too tempting for me to pass on.
So, call me a sucker if you want to, but I’m diving head first into the college game again (read: “pain and misery” instead of “the college game).
BIG NATURAL’S TANK THE 401K PICKS
NCAAF: Oregon -5 @ USC – You worry about this game being AT USC, given the Trojans are 1-3 on the road and 4-0 at home. But, this Ducks team HAS to have new life after Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Auburn went down last week. They’re now sitting within earshot of a playoff spot, and should be highly motivated to win. The key to this game is the Oregon defense, allowing just 14.8 PPG.
NCAAF: Florida +6.5 vs. Georgia – Folks seem to be all in on Georgia this week because of their run game, but it’s pretty simple to me. The Bulldogs haven’t played anybody this season. They lost to a pretty bad South Carolina team, and that Notre Dame win isn’t looking as good as it was a few weeks ago. People keep predicting this team to go off, and they just don’t unless they’re playing Vandy or Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Gators are showing up in big games, beating Auburn and keeping things close with LSU up until the end. I like Dan Mullen’s battle-tested squad to make a statement in the SEC East this week.
NCAAF: Oklahoma State -3 vs. TCU – I like the home team a lot on this one. The Cowboys offense is piling up yardage, and Chuba Hubbard should be able to keep that Horned Frog defense on its heels. TCU isn’t the same team on the road as it is at home.
NCAAF: MTSU -3 @ Charlotte – Two bad defenses may mean the OVER (65) may be the safer play here, but the difference is when it comes to scoring – Charlotte is allowing around nine more points per game than the Blue Raiders. MTSU seemed to figure things out on offense in last week’s surprising 50-17 win over FIU, so I think they exploit that difference and put points on the board against Charlotte.
NCAAF: Arkansas +7.5 vs. Mississippi State – I have been -SO-DAMN-CLOSE- with Arkansas. I still say Chad Morris is a good fit and the philosophy is one that can win. But, hot damn – ‘close’ ain’t cuttin’ it. They hung with Ole Miss and Kentucky like I said they would, they surprised against Texas A&M, and they really should’ve beaten San Jose State. They just aren’t breaking through – think about that….this 2-6 team could easily be 5-3 searching for a bowl berth.
So, this 7.5-point spread seems like a massive overrating of Mississippi State, who has been absolutely rocked this season. From a stats and yardage perspective, these two teams are pretty similar. Maybe the Razorbacks don’t win this one, and it’s like a lot of other games this season, but I damn sure think they can cover.
W-L Record: (5-2)
Last Week: (4-1)
On the Season: (22-13-0) – 63%
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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