The 2019 Tennessee Titans team was one of the most special in franchise history. That unit overcame a lot just to squeak into the playoffs. Every year, you hear the talking heads asking “who’s going to be the team to get hot and go on a run in January?” It’s like clockwork. Last season, that team was the Titans, who rode their stud running back Derrick Henry all the way to the AFC Championship before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, even with so much to build upon from 2019, the Titans’ storybook run to the conference championship game last season has not positioned them as AFC South favorites in the eyes of oddsmakers. According to Sports Betting Dime, Tennessee is averaging +176 odds to win the South, while Indianapolis is the favorite at +120. That hierarchy is more hype about the Colts – who acquired Philip Rivers and DeForest Buckner in the offseason – than it is a fade of the Titan, who will be fielding another balanced offense this season.
When you broaden that scope to look at Super Bowl odds, the Titans are sitting there at +3000, 15th in the NFL. How did we get here?! The Titans were one of the last four teams standing, they have the best pure running back in the NFL, and that offense was kept largely intact throughout free agency and the draft. There’s continuity, talent, and depth – so why aren’t the Titans getting a little more respect from oddsmakers? What’s the thinking here when we’re talking about reasons for regression?
Ryan Tannehill
It all starts at the quarterback position, where Tannehill had a career year after taking over for Marcus Mariota during the disastrous game against the Broncos. John Mosley and I talked about this specific question on a recent episode of The Unofficial Titans Podcast: can he keep that level of play up in 2020?
Tannehill led the NFL in passer rating in 2019 with 117.5, and finished third in completion percentage at 70.3%. That certainly seems improbable for Tannehill to replicate, but I’m afraid we’re missing the point. He doesn’t have to be perfect again for this team to succeed. The things that should encourage Titans fans are Tannehill’s accuracy, his decisiveness, his field general aura, and his deep ball. All things the Titans were missing at quarterback. Those things translate to sustained success in this league.
With all of the continuity on offense (Jack Conklin is the only starter NOT returning in 2020), what reason is there to think that Tannehill is just suddenly going to fall off of a cliff? He has stellar chemistry with AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith. The offensive line is largely intact. Henry is still in the backfield. Is some switch going to just go off that turns Tannehill into a zombie? I don’t understand.
Why some see him as a reason for regression this year is beyond me. Seeing these ‘Tannehill’s a bust’ takes make me realize just how few of these national analysts actually watched the Titans in 2019.
Derrick Henry
For whatever reason, the narrative among the media (to be fair, some oddsmakers actually think King Henry can repeat as NFL Rushing Champoin) seems to be that Henry can’t possibly keep running the way he did in the playoffs. I know he has been in the league for four seasons, but it’s not exactly like he’s battled injury his entire season. This isn’t Larry Johnson entering the 2007 season, folks.
Those first couple of seasons were spent splitting time with DeMarco Murray. In 2018, the Titans tried to make Dion Lewis happen. No, it wasn’t until his breakout 2019 season that Henry got the chance to take the reins. So, relatively speaking, he’s a little more fresh than the average running back entering his fifth season. He’s still going to be the focal point of the Titans offense, and all of the play-action and deep shots come out of the respect and fear King Henry commands.
This also speaks to a misconception about the Titans offense. It’s not that they’re incapable of making big plays in the passing game. It’s just that they don’t have to very often.
In case you can’t tell, I don’t subscribe to the theory that Henry is going to hit a wall at all.
Dean Pees
The Titans defense didn’t get the credit it deserved for being as serviceable and deep as it was in 2019. But, just ask the New England Patriots what that unit could do on its best days. Mike Vrabel managed to talk defensive coordinator Dean Pees out of retirement for that 2019 run, but wasn’t going to ask him to put off retirement again in 2020.
In his absence, the Titans have elected to roll without a true defensive coordinator. Vrabel is going to be guiding a team effort to call plays on defense. Maybe it works? Or, maybe it is a legitimate opportunity for this team to regress in one area.
It stands to reason that without a true defensive coordinator in 2020 (and considering the trade of all-world defensive lineman Jurrell Casey), that unit could take a hit, and not perform as well.
The drop-off trend
It happens every year, right? The 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars. The 2018 Chicago Bears. It certainly seems as though there’s always a team that surprises during the regular season, gets hot during the playoffs, and then completely tanks in the following season.
Who’s that going to be in 2020? I can tell you…it’s certainly NOT going to be Chiefs or the 49ers. So, the thinking here is that the Titans are going to be that team that over-performed in 2019 and won’t be able to do it again in 2020.
So, they may say that the Titans can’t compete because Tannehill can’t replicate his 2019, Henry can’t run like that forever, there’s turnover on the defense, or the AFC is just going to be really good. But, I don’t see it that way.
I see a nucleus of proven talent in their prime, an offense that is remaining whole (let’s give offensive coordinator Arthur Smith a little love – he’s emerging as one of the best in the league), with a defense that got younger and faster between seasons.
I’d take ’em to win the AFC South in a heartbeat, and think those +3000 Super Bowl odds are a pretty damn good bargain.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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