Big 12 expansion has been one of the hottest topics of discussion over the past several weeks. After finishing the 2014 season as co-champions of the Big 12, both Baylor and TCU were left out of the initial College Football Playoff in favor of Ohio State. While hindsight allows us to see that Ohio State was clearly the best team in college football that year, many suggested the playoff committee got it wrong at the time.
The Buckeyes suffered a horrendous loss to an underwhelming Virginia Tech that some thought should automatically disqualify them from the playoffs. After that loss, Ohio State ran through a mediocre Big Ten conference, playing and defeating only one ranked opponent for the rest of the season (Michigan State).
Meanwhile, Baylor defeated three ranked opponents (including ninth-ranked TCU) and TCU defeated four ranked opponents. Despite Baylor defeating TCU, the two teams were named co-champions of the Big 12 for posting the same record.
Looking back on the 2014 season, Baylor and TCU both appeared to be clear cut better teams than Ohio State. So, how did both teams end up on the outside looking in?
Simple – Ohio State got the opportunity to win the conference outright, and did so, by thumping the eleventh-ranked Wisconsin Badgers, 59-0.
Because of that, the Big 12 lost out on a huge payout earned by making the playoffs. With only ten programs in the league, they also lost millions by not having enough teams to qualify for a conference championship game.
That changed after the 2015 season.
In January, the Division I council voted that the Big 12 could host a championship game so long as each team in the conference played every other team in the conference over the course of the regular season. Now, the Big 12 hasn’t decided upon having a conference championship game yet. But, that’s just one of many factors to consider in raising the profile of the Big 12 football conference.
And, let’s be clear – if the Big 12 wasn’t complaining, another conference would be. The problem is simple: there are five major conferences, and only four playoff spots (each of which is worth around $50 million to the conference). That’s not going to be solved until the playoffs are expanded.
But, there’s a huge misconception about what expanding a conference is about.
If you listen to your local radio station call-ins, or pay attention to internet message boards, you’d think this is about competition. To many, it is. Fans want to see the best match-ups. They’re salivating at the idea of a yearly rivalry between Oklahoma and Florida State or reigniting the flame between Texas and Texas A&M.
You’ll see things like, “the Big 12 should take Clemson to beef up the league,” or “Louisville makes sense from a regional standpoint.”
Here’s the problem – the teams that are already in power five conferences aren’t going to leave power five conferences unless the money is staggeringly greater. To be quite blunt here, this ain’t the SEC calling…this is the Big 12.
Yet, therein lies the key word: money. It’s all about the money. If you think adding teams or adding a conference championship game are even remotely about the integrity of the football being played, you are dead wrong. It’s not even remotely about competition.
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby is on record speculating that a conference championship game could be worth an additional $35 million. The question is whether or not they can all agree on playing that Big 12 round robin without sacrificing some of the out-of-conference games, so on and so forth. There’s a lot of logistics issues at hand, and a lot of voices with say in the matter.
In addition to that, the College Football Playoff pays around $50 million each year to its four participants. Having an outright conference champion increases the likelihood that one of those four teams is going to be your champion. The Big 12 wants to do all it can to get closer to that $50 million payout.
Another facet of expansion is spreading “the footprint.” In other words, how can they stream in new revenue from putting their product in a new market. It’s why the Big Ten grabbed Maryland and Rutgers, getting into the lucrative Baltimore/DC & New York/New Jersey markets. It’s why the SEC went into Texas. You want more viewers of Big 12 football – that’s how TV deals grow in value.
Under its current arrangement, the Big 12 is making $200 million a year from its TV deal, while averaging 1.57 million viewers. Spread over a 14-week season, that’s a payout of $9.09 per viewer on average. If they can add another million average viewers per week, that’s another potential $40-$50 million that could be tacked on to a new TV deal by the time the current contract expires in 2025.
So, they won’t add teams to fortify the spirit of competition. They’ll add teams that bring a viewership that will make that 1.57 million climb. Who fits the bill?
Houston – it’s the easy choice, but the Big 12 footprint already has a massive mark on Texas. Plus, how is the University of Texas going to feel about adding another Lone Star State program to the conference? What do they say about ‘if mama ain’t happy?’ Still, Houston boasts a top-10 TV market with a population of over two million people.
Memphis – Memphis has already pledged a boat load of money to the Big 12 ($500 million to be exact), with FedEx already offering to sponsor the Big 12 Championship game. Just don’t look at the ratings – Memphis is barely a top-50 TV market.
UCF – Football has a huge following in the state of Florida, but UCF’s TV numbers are surprisingly not-that-great. Still, the Orlando area is a top-20 caliber market, and UCF has a large presence in the state. The hope would be that Big 12 action in the Panhandle State would make those numbers rise.
Colorado State – Admittedly, the Rams are a long shot to make the Big 12, but if they can tap into the 18th-best TV market in the nation (Denver), they may make the conference think long and hard about it. After all, the Big 12 brought in Colorado as apart of the initial conference in 1996.
So, we’re talking about an overall swing of potentially $135 million annually. Yeah – they’re adding two teams. In the end, I’m calling Memphis and UCF.
To look at the College Football Playoff’s revenue distribution directly, click here.
Stoney Keeley is the editor of the SoBros Network, Tennessee Titans Featured Analyst for Pro Football Spot, and covers the WWE for WrestlingNews.co. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley,@PFSpot, @WrestlingNewsCo
Follow us on Twitter @SoBrosNetwork
