Rule number one of the College Football Playoff: there are no rules.
At least, that’s what this whole thing has felt like since its inception in 2014. Remember that? Fans and pundits alike argued over who deserved the #4 spot more: Baylor or TCU. Regardless of where you stood in that argument, everyone seemed to agree that surely Ohio State did not deserve that fourth spot. Good thing for the CFP Committee, the Buckeyes ended up proving themselves as the best football team in the country. Urban Meyer’s squad snuck out of the Sugar Bowl with a win over Alabama and rattled Oregon in the CFP finals to win it all.
Last year, Iowa narrowly missed out on a playoff spot after losing the Big Ten Championship to Michigan State in an epic game. It was the Pac-12 that missed out in 2015, though, as Stanford finished the season ranked #6. Sure, it was a little more cut and dry, but there were still questions surrounding the system. After seeing what happened in the Cotton Bowl and the Rose Bowl, should Stanford have been the choice at #4? What would Houston have done with a playoff opportunity?
My point is that four spots are not enough when you have six major football entities (the five major conferences, and the “group of five”). If the CFP expanded to eight spots, it would provide enough space for each conference champion, the highest-ranked GO5 contender, and two wild cards to spare. It would provide a lot more objectivity to the process. Or, of course, the committee could just share their criteria for the selection process, but like I said earlier, there don’t appear to be any rules.
Nonetheless, 2014 would’ve looked like:
(1) Alabama vs. (8) Boise State
(2) Oregon vs. (7) Mississippi State
(3) Florida State vs. (6) TCU
(4) Ohio State vs. (5) Baylor
…and 2015:
(1) Clemson vs. (8) Houston
(2) Alabama vs. (7) Ohio State
(3) Michigan State vs. (6) Stanford
(4) Oklahoma vs. (5) Iowa
Can you argue any team outside of either set of matchups deserved to be named National Champion? No, I don’t think so at all. And, by the way, just a quick aside – how great of a slate of college football would that have been?
Do you think the CFP should be about getting the best teams in the dance? Or, is it about getting the most deserving teams in the dance? I tend to lean towards the latter of the two. So, you can probably see why I’d be a bit bothered if Ohio State makes it in and a Big Ten Champion Penn State team that beat the Buckeyes doesn’t.
But, believe it or not, there’s a pretty clear pathway for three teams from the same conference to make it into the tournament. Don’t believe me? Look how the standings shake out:
1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Ohio State (11-1)
3. Clemson (11-1)
4. Washington (11-1)
5. Michigan (10-2)
6. Wisconsin (10-2)
7. Penn State (10-2)
8. Colorado (10-2)
9. Oklahoma (9-2)
10. Oklahoma State (9-2)
So, what we know:
1) Alabama and Ohio State have all but officially clinched playoff spots. The Buckeyes don’t play this weekend, so they can do nothing to help or hurt their standing. It’s all in the hands of the Crimson Tide, and let me tell you guys – it would take a colossal loss to Florida in the SEC Championship for Alabama to fall out of the race.
2) The loser of Penn State-Wisconsin will be out. Easy enough to understand, right? The winner stays alive, and the loser falls to 10-3 and out of the race. But, considering Michigan is already ranked ahead of both teams, does the Big Ten Champion leap frog them in the standings with a quality win?
3) Clemson and Washington have to lose for this scenario to play out. And even then, it’s possible the Tigers still earn the votes to get in. How heavily would the committee weigh losses to Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech against them? I’d venture to say very heavily. If Washington loses to Colorado, the Huskies would fall out of the top five altogether, especially considering the Buffaloes are currently sitting at eighth.
4) Colorado and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State are likely too far down to make a run. It would take a monumental win for the Buffs to get into the four-team tournament, but it’s not that far out of reach. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play in a de facto Big 12 championship this weekend, and the Sooners certainly have the better resume. Still, it would take a scenario I can’t even imagine right now for them to soar up to fourth.
So, realistically speaking, we’re looking at six serious candidates for the CFP: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington, Michigan, and Penn State/Wisconsin. Should Clemson and Washington lose, Michigan stands to move up to third, and the Big Ten Champion could very well slide into fourth, if not pass Michigan for third.
Because of worthy contenders being left out and the potential for three teams from the same conference to get in, the CFP Committee should get this bad boy to eight teams sooner rather than later.
You see this?
(1) Alabama vs. (8) Western Michigan/Navy/Houston
(2) Ohio State vs. (7) Oklahoma/Oklahoma State
(3) Clemson vs. (6) Michigan
(4) Washington vs. (5)Wisconsin/Penn State
Give. Me. This.
Stoney Keeley is the editor of the SoBros Network, Tennessee Titans Featured Analyst for Pro Football Spot, Contributor to FanSided’s Bama Hammer, and covers the WWE for WrestlingNews.co. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley, @PFSpot, @WrestlingNewsCo, @Bama_Hammer
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