The Minnesota Vikings travel to Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday to play the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2017 NFC Championship game at 5:40PM CST. Raise your hand if you predicted a Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles NFC title game back in August!
That’s what I thought – this is probably about as surprising an outcome as you could get in the NFC Championship. But, both of these teams have done it with defense.
Like the AFC Championship before it, it looks like the weather is going to be as beautiful as you could ask for in mid-January in Philly. So, we should be poised for quite the showdown with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.
The Stats
The Eagles can score points with the best of ’em. Literally – they’re only behind New England and the Los Angeles Rams in terms of points per game. Minnesota is still 10th in the category, so they aren’t too far off, but I think the Eagles clearly have the edge on total offense.
We have to talk about the quarterbacks in this game. People talk so much shit about Nick Foles, but he is someone the Eagles absolutely trust. And, he’s coming off a game against the Atlanta Falcons that saw him complete 76.7% of his passes. Even against the best defense in the league, he’s a guy that can get the job done and steady the ship.
On the other side, Case Keenum, a guy who was considered a steady career backup heading into the season, has had the best year of his career and made it awfully hard to put him on the bench next season. Last week, he threw for over 300 yards for the third time this season, and against a pretty good Saints defense no less. Against a middling Eagles secondary, Keenum could have another big day.
Neither team has a 1,000-yard rusher, which is pretty astonishing when you think about how good both of these teams are in the run (Philadelphia is 3rd in rushing yards per game; Minnesota is 7th). But, both use every option they have. For the Vikings, it’s Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray. For the Eagles, it’s LaGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi, with some Corey Clement sprinkled in.
Something’s going to have to give as these are literally the two best run defenses in the NFL.
It’s all about defense in this matchup, as these two units are among the league’s best. In terms of points allowed, the Vikings are the best, while the Eagles are the fourth best. The Eagles are the best run defense in the league, allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game. But, the Vikings aren’t too far behind them, allowing just 83.6 rushing yards per game. The Vikings have the edge in pass defense, 2nd in the league compared to the Eagles’ 17th ranked secondary. That’s the matchup that the Vikings will likely try to exploit with their receivers.
What Las Vegas Thinks…
The Vikings are a three point favorite at the moment, and regardless of where you stand on the match-up, I think we’re all in agreement that this is going to be a pretty close game. Three points sounds about right, but since the Eagles are 8-1 at home (and that only loss was a meaningless 6-0 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17), I’m going to say they cover, if not win outright.
The over/under is set at 39 right now, and barring some sort of defensive collapse, I think the point total is going to come in way under that. Seems like easy money to me.
The Dark Horse
Minnesota: Can you call Stefon Diggs a dark horse after last week’s walk-off win? Hard to say, but I think he has a unique opportunity for a big game this weekend. Look at what the shifty Sterling Shepard did to the Eagles this season. That Eagles secondary gives up a lot of yardage to receivers, and with Adam Thielen getting a lot of attention, Diggs could make some big plays.
Philadelphia: Alvin Kamara was able to chew up the Vikings defense. While the Eagles don’t have a running back with that skill set, they do have Nelson Agholor who could have a good game if the Eagles are able to get him the ball in space.
Final Prediction
Everyone talks about Nick Foles like he’s chopped liver, but the Eagles are winning football games because of the age old adage, “run the ball and stop the run.” They don’t need Foles to be excellent here. Just feed off that home energy and get a win, which I think they will. Between two teams that are so evenly matched, I give the slight edge to the Eagles offense.
Minnesota 13
Philadelphia 16
Check out my full preview of the AFC Championship game here.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Alabama Crimson Tide football, the WWE, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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