Congratulations to nrpeto11. This individual was the DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $40K Spring Series Tablesetter contest on DraftKings. nrpeto11 won this grand prize pool and its $5000 prize when the lineup scored 182.7 points. The contest was played on April 25, 2018.
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecast. This study guide was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that assist you when constructing future submissions. What were their pivots? What were their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $5000 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $5K Winning Lineup: nrpeto11, 4-25-18
This roster used the entirety of its $50000 salary. The slate featured eight matchups.
Definitely a unique team that, unlike most winning teams, didn’t feature a major team stack. This was one ultra-contrarian mini-stack that feature Miami’s No. 2-3 hitters vs $14000 Clayton Kershaw. That mini-stack was combined with Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Cody Bellinger to make it a three-player game stack. The rest of the lineup involved individual pieces from separate games.
Trevor Bauer ($9000, 17.5%)
Jake Arrieta ($8500, 34.2%)
Combined Salary: $17500
Points: 46.35
No surprise with Arrieta. An $8500 price tag for a legitimate ace pitcher at home against a depleted Arizona Diamondbacks offense? Not to mention that Arrieta had recency bias from when he scored 38 points in his previous outing against Pittsburgh.
Bauer was a solid risk. He was facing off against the Chicago Cubs’ Jekyll and Hyde offense. People were probably turned off a bit from Bauer because his previous outing was somewhat of a letdown. Can’t forget that more than half of this slate featured a $14000 pitching dud heading the lineups (seriously, why do we keep paying these extravagant pitchers prices to, if lucky, get 2x toward 25%+ of our rosters?). Hard to fit both Kershaw and Bauer into the same lineup.
C: J.T. Realmuto ($3600, 2.9%)
1B: Cody Bellinger ($4500, 15.1%)
2B: Starlin Castro ($3100, 0.7%)
Combined Salary: $11200
Points: 50 points
Nrpeto11 mini-stacking Realmuto and Castro against Clayton Kershaw? That’s why DFS analysts talk about exploiting randomness in MLB GPPs. Taking advantage of randomness—and not just stacking based on highest over/under totals—is a great way to get ahead of the crowd.
Believe it or not, there was logic behind doing this. Realmuto has been one of MLB’s hottest hitters since his April 17 dismissal from the disabled list. Despite a weak lineup that’s even weaker when Justin Bour is removed against southpaws, hitting catchers are a scarcity. A catcher in the No. 2 hole batting .385 with nearly a 1.3 OPS? Realmuto took advantage with a double-homer game.
Behind Realmuto was Castro. Castro has a history of excelling against LHP. His 2017 resume featured a 123 wRC+ and .358wOBA against LHP. He has started 2018 with a 239wRC+ vs LHP as opposed to a 59wRC+ against RHP.
Not a bad mini-stack when trying to catch Kershaw on an off-night. Cody Bellinger against a minimum-priced pitcher needs no explanation.
3B: Mike Moustakas ($4200, 18.9%)
Points: 14
Moustakas has always shown more proficiency against RHP. Just compare his career RHP splits (103wRC+) to his LHP splits (85wRC+). He had just completed a 14-game hitting streak. The opposing pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin, has noticeable career split differentials against LHP.
SS: Adeiny Hechavarria ($3000, 1.9%)
Points: 19
Hechavarria entered this contest on a six-game hitting streak. He doesn’t feature the greatest pop, but that’s acceptable with the salary relief. Then consider he’s facing a pitcher whose ERA is well into double-digits? What do the Baltimore Orioles do to these pitchers? Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta before the Chicago Cubs fixed him, now Cobb, probably others I’m not remembering…
OF: Mookie Betts ($5400, 20.1%)
Points: 30
Betts vs an average-at-best right-handed pitcher. Next!
OF: Khris Davis ($4800, 12.9%)
Points: 16
Athletics vs Rangers was projected as the highest scoring game of the night. Taking one of the top-two overall bats from either team is no surprise, especially when one considers that Davis was sandwiched between LHH’s Jed Lowrie and Matt Olson. Knowing Doug Fister’s history vs LHH, the RHH Davis would almost certainly get the benefit of seeing some good pitches.
OF: Marcell Ozuna ($3900, 6.2%)
Points: 7
Ozuna has performed much better against lefties. Steven Matz is a southpaw who is susceptible to the long ball. nrpeto11 had the right idea; it just didn’t pay off as much as it would’ve on other nights.
CLOSING NOTE
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
DFS MLB GPP Winners Study Guide: petteytheft89, $100K, 4-23-18
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
