Congratulations to magneto999. This individual was the DraftKings DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $175K Rally Cap contest on May 2, 2018. magneto999 won this grand prize pool and its $25000 prize when the lineup scored 230.1 points.
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecasting. This series was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that will assist you when constructing your future submissions. What kind of pivots are others making on their teams. What are their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $25000 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $25K Winning Lineup: magneto999, 5-2-18
This roster used all of its $50000 salary. This slate featured eight matchups.
Another large team stack from a largely overlooked source. magneto999 stacked five of the seven right-handed Los Angeles Angels hitters against Baltimore Orioles pitcher Dylan Bundy. Most of those hitters had depreciated prices as they’ve cooled off since the start of the season. Bundy was one of MLB’s steadiest pitchers before his hiccup from a previous outing that came against the Tampa Bay Rays. His struggled continued into this affair.
That salary relief created an opportunity to stack two stud pitchers and some effective hitters.
SP: Stephen Strasburg ($10800, 31.9%)
SP: James Paxton ($8000, 39.6%)
Combined Salary: $18800
Points: 77.1
Not much needs discussed here. Paxton is a strikeout-specialist who was due for a progression after a sloppy few starts. The forty percent who used him enjoyed 16 strikeouts. Strasburg is another strikeout-specialist who had a strong outing against a slumping Pittsburgh Pirates offense. His outing wasn’t as productive as Luis Severino at $9200 (45.65) or Sean Newcomb at $7600 (33.95), but it was good enough here. Winning DFS MLB lineups don’t require perfection, or anything close to it.
C: Martin Maldonado ($2500, 0.8%)
2B: Zack Cozart ($3300, 2.5%)
SS: Andrelton Simmons ($3500, 2.4%)
OF: Mike Trout ($5600, 14.1%)
OF: Justin Upton ($3800, 3.0%)
Combined Salary: $18700
Points: 91
Are you thinking, “How can anyone predict Maldonado—a career 71wRC+ and .279 wOBA vs RHP—score 28 points and find himself a triple short of the cycle against another team’s ace pitcher?” Well, if it makes you feel any better, only three of the top 10 entries had him in their lineups. Just a matter of using the catcher in a team stack. Sometimes, it pays off. A lot of catchers aren’t great hitters. But if a team scores a lot of runs, that catcher may end up in the frenzy.
The rest of the lineup? People weren’t expecting consecutive flops from Bundy. It turned out as the perfect contrarian play. What’s more surprising is if Bundy struggles at all, it’s against LHB. Not one LHB in this stack. Not even a switch-hitter. Just Maldonado and four solid RHH vs RHP.
Take this as a great test in randomness. This would fail nine times out of ten. But on that one time that it works, it creates a massive advantage over the competition. I like focusing on $7-9K pitchers on larger slates because they’re often overlooked commodities. Paxton, Bundy, Newcomb, and Ivan Nova were all primary targets to either use or stack against within this price range. There’s a lot of hidden value within the midcard.
1B: Matt Adams ($3500, 27.1%)
Points: 25
Injuries to Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon have created a void that allows Adams to see more at-bats than he had at the start of the season. Adams has made his career as a left-handed platoon hitter who can demolish unsuspecting RHPs. That’s proven with his career 127wRC+ and .216 ISO vs RHP as opposed to his 58wRC+ and .148 ISO vs LHP.
May 1-2 featured the perfect scenario for exploitation: RHPs who had significant split disadvantages against LHB. For Adams, that’s a match made in Heaven. Chad Kuhl, Ivan Nova and the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen had no answers for the rearranged Nationals lineup that consisted of three-out-of-four LHB from No. 9, 1-3. Wilmer Difo, Bryce Harper and Adams (along with hot-hitting RHH Trea Turner) caused havoc all series.
3B: Travis Shaw ($4200, 23.0%)
Points: 0
Probably the most remarkable part about magneto999’s lineup was that his third-highest priced hitter left after his first at-bat. Shaw injured his foot on a foul ball during the second inning. So magneto999 basically won this tournament with a nine-man roster. Very impressive!
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($4800, 12.5%)
Points: 37
A novice fantasy player may have been scared off from Stanton’s overall stat line and recent game log. A closer look indicates that Stanton’s early season struggles are strictly against RHP. Compare Stanton’s 2018 vs LHP stats (254wRC+, .593 ISO in 27 at-bats) with his vs RHP stats (73wRC+, .138 ISO in 94 at-bats).
The gap will narrow as the season progresses. Stanton can dominate either side of the plate. What one should consider is that, while his 2017 (144 wRC+) and career (135 wRC+) vs RHP are fantastic tallies, they trail his vs LHP numbers (202 wRC+ in 2017, 173 wRC+ for career). Expect future regression vs LHP and progression vs RHP.
Another note is that Dallas Keuchel isn’t a strikeout-specialist. That increases Stanton’s chances for home runs.
CLOSING
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:
RoyalPain21, $20K, 5-1-18
bhy101, $25K, 4-30-18
nrpeto11, $5K, 4-25-18
petteytheft89, $100K, 4-23-18
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
