Congratulations to RoyalPain21. This individual was the DraftKings DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $200K Knuckleball contest on May 1, 2018. RoyalPain21 won this grand prize pool and its $20000 prize when the lineup scored 211.5 points. RoyalPain21 is the No. 74 ranked player on RotoGrinders.
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecasting. This series was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that will assist you when constructing your future submissions. What kind of pivots are others making on their teams. What are their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $20000 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $20K Winning Lineup: RoyalPain21, 5-1-18
This roster used $46500 of its $50000 salary. This slate featured 14 matchups.
First time I’ve seen someone leave a significant amount of salary on the table . RoyalPain21 was confident enough to utilize a double-team stack despite leaving $3500 unused salary. His lineup featured a five-player Washington Nationals stack and a three-player Seattle Mariners stack. The opposing pitchers facing these teams (Chad Kuhl, Andrew Triggs) either had BABIP or SIERAs that appeared ready for a correction. Guess they’ll have to wait until their next appearance.
SP: Justin Verlander ($11700, 12.8%)
SP: Mike Soroka ($4000, 12.3%)
Combined Salary: $15700
Points: 65.5
Two low-owned pitchers in different price ranges. Choosing Verlander over a myriad of $10000+ options that all had “safer” matchups proved wise. Although the New York Yankees have a slew of high-ISO bats, that power often comes at the expense of strikeouts. Verlander exploited that flaw with a 14-strikeout performance. Making it appear even riskier were his sabermetrics (.198 BABIP (.284 career), 1.36 ERA, 2.95 SIERA) suggesting a regression to the mean should happen sooner than later. Verlander has been rejuvenated since his trade to a World Series contender.
Soroka was making his MLB debut in a perceived tough road challenge against the New York Mets. The 20-year-old was more than ready for the task as he out-dueled Noah Syndergaard for the victory. His 21.9 points were more than some of the $10000-plus options. I should know. On my team, Soroka outscored Chris Sale (20.35).
C: Matt Wieters ($3100, 2.4%)
1B: Matt Adams ($3600, 7.3%)
3B: Wilmer Difo ($2700, 1.6%)
SS: Trea Turner ($4300, 11.1%)
OF: Bryce Harper ($5300, 14.2%)
Combined Salary: $19000
Points: 97
I’m not a fan of such large team stacks, especially on 14-game slates. It’s more of a catch-all strategy that exposes some flaws on a roster. Very hard to pay off all those salaries on the same team in the same game. Wieters ended up as a punt with his zero.
What can I say? It worked well enough here. This lineup consisted of the No. 1-3, 7 and 9 hitters. Four of the five hitters batted left. That’s an acceptable strategy when one considers Kuhl’s career split stats vs LHB (5.12 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, 1.48 HR/9) as opposed to vs RHB (4.08 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 0.75 HR/9). Turner was probably thrown into the mix as he has had a hot hand and was mixed in-between that 7, 9, 1-3 part of the lineup.
2B: Robinson Cano ($3900, 7.7%)
OF Nelson Cruz ($4000, 4.9%)
OF: Dee Gordon ($3900, 3.6%)
Combined Salary: $11800
Points: 49
RoyalPain21 rounded out the roster with the Mariners’ No. 1, 3-4 hitters. Andrew Triggs had entered this contest with an inconsistent game log showing. Nothing really jumps out at me via split stats. The Mariners entered the contest winners of five out of six. That stretch included run totals of 1-4-5-5-12-10. Each of the hitters has had some taste of previous success against Triggs (including Cruz now having three homers in eight at-bats). The sample sizes are far too small to take seriously.
CLOSING
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection:
DFS MLB GPP Winners Study Guides (Most Recent)
bhy101, $25K, 4-30-18
nrpeto11, $5K, 4-25-18
petteytheft89, $100K, 4-23-18
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
