Titans at Falcons: NFL DFS Advice, Week 4, 2019

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Welcome to NFL DFS advice for the Titans at Falcons matchup during Week 4 of the 2019 season. Every week, Joshua Huffman will preview some of the main participants from the Tennessee Titans games. These guides will include player pricing, injuries, potential mismatches, and anything else players should consider when choosing players from Tennessee and/or their opponents.

Titans at Falcons: Key Players & Pricing

Derrick Henry ($6300)
Marcus Mariota ($5100)
Delanie Walker ($4800)
Corey Davis ($4200)
Adam Humphries ($4000)
Dion Lewis ($3700)
A.J. Brown ($3700)
Titans D/ST ($2600)

Julio Jones ($7800)
Matt Ryan ($5900)
Devonta Freeman ($5000)
Calvin Ridley ($5000)
Austin Hooper ($4300)
Mohamed Sanu ($4100)
Ito Smith ($3700)
Falcons D/ST ($2900)

Titans at Falcons: Injury Report

Titans OT Taylor Lewan serves the final game of a suspension that dated back to the opener. OG Kevin Pamphile remains out. Pass protection has been a major concern. Through three games, Titans QB Mariota has been sacked 17 times. The entire offensive line is in shambles.

Falcons RBs Ito Smith and Kenjon Barner are both in concussion protocol. Losing Barner impacts the special teams. If Smith isn’t cleared, it could lead to a few extra touches for Falcons RB Freeman.
Falcons S Keanu Neal suffered an Achilles injury that will prematurely end his season for the second straight season. In 2018, the Falcons were unable to effectively replace their tone-setter and enforcer. To replace Neal, the Falcons are expected to shift around multiple pieces and possibly use some type of committee. Regardless, they’re in a difficult spot facing one of the NFL’s most complete TEs, Titans TE Walker.

Titans at Falcons: Lines (As of Sep. 25)

Falcons (-4)
Over/Under 45.0 to 46.0

Titans at Falcons: NFL DFS Advice

Expect this game to play AROUND TO OVER 45 TO 46. Atlanta’s offense fares better at home. Their offensive strengths could find success against certain aspects of Tennessee’s defense. Expect Atlanta to score a minimum of 20 points. The main question is whether Tennessee can discover any offensive rhythm against a wounded Atlanta defense. If Tennessee gets behind early, there’s blowout potential. Garbage time scores would increase the chances for an over.
A depleted RB depth chart could mean that Falcons RB Freeman receives some extra touches. While Tennessee has surrendered rushing yards, take note that many of those yards came during the final minutes of their Week 2-3 games. In Week 3, Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette had a 69-yard run against Tennessee. He finished with 13 carries for 66 yards.
Great spot for Falcons QB Ryan, WR Jones, and WR Ridley. While Titans SCB Logan Ryan should handle Falcons SWR Sanu, Jones and Ridley face an inconsistent outside CB tandem of Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson. Supporting potential success is Tennessee’s lackluster pass rush. Jones has scored TDs in seven straight games. While Ridley is one of those boom-or-bust WRs who always carries risk, his $5000 price tag offers the type of upside that Detroit Lions WR Marvin Jones and New York Giants WR Sterling Shepard enjoyed around this price range in Week 3. The main concern is that Falcons have players who can vulture scores away from the WRs (e.g. TE Hooper, RB Freeman). Keep an eye on Ridley via the injury report.
Titans RB Lewis has almost been phased out of the offense. This game offers one of his best chances to make an impact. In 2017 and 2018, Atlanta surrendered the most receptions to RBs. While that hasn’t been the case in 2019 (13 in three games), there’s a chance that Tennessee falls behind in this contest. If that happens, Lewis could become a major component of Tennessee’s dink-and-dunk offense that has allowed 17 sacks in three games. That’s due to a combination of poor blocking and quarterback tentativeness.

PPR lovers may consider him. My preference is paying up for RBs who have huge PPR potential along with the chance of 100-yard rushing performances. Play at YOUR risk.
Tennessee wants to keep Atlanta’s offense off the field. Shorten the contest with a Titans RB Henry ground attack. If the Titans keep it close, Henry could have a solid contest. Henry is rarely used in the passing game. That makes him very touchdown dependent. At $6300—unless you’re confident he’ll have a minimum 100 yards rushing for two touchdowns—look elsewhere.
Titans D/ST is unplayable. Maybe it’s tempting to consider their defense at such a low price. Don’t forget that their previous scores were against backup quarterbacks and Baker Mayfield. Matt Ryan at home? Pass.
If Atlanta gets out to a big lead, they could have a sackfest. Even then, Titans QB Mariota rarely throws interceptions. The Titans would likely score enough points to prevent any major defensive scoring categories for Falcons D/ST. I’d pass.
The Falcons rarely shift their cornerbacks. Falcons CBs Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver stay in place. The Titans move their wide receivers. Maybe Tennessee can get WR Davis matched up against Oliver? Regardless, Tennessee has to rev up their 2017 No. 5 pick. This is far and away their best opportunity to do that. At $4200, Davis provides incredible value. It’s just a matter of whether Tennessee’s overall offense isn’t so incompetent that they’re incapable of taking advantage of great opportunities.
My favorite GPP plays with the most upside (albeit risk): Falcons WR Ridley, Titans WR Davis.