The path to the 2019 College Football Playoff has cleared up immensely in the last couple of weeks. We went from having about 10 teams in contention to, realistically, about six. The Penn State Nittany Lions fell from contention after their loss at the hands of the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Oregon Ducks are out after a shocking loss to the Arizona State Sun Devils. Both the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Baylor Bears could ill afford a loss, and they’ve both done just that. Both will have to win out and hope for chaos if they have any shot at surging up the rankings to a playoff spot. The Utah Utes and Oklahoma Sooners are currently on the outside looking in, but may have dug themselves a little too deep with bad losses to the USC Trojans and Kansas State Wildcats respectively. Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide is sitting in limbo, hoping to beat the Auburn Tigers, and hoping for the LSU Tigers to win the SEC.
At this point, the only virtual lock I have for the playoffs is the Clemson Tigers. It seems unfathomable that this team would lose to either South Carolina or Virginia/Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. Could LSU potentially lose out? It’s a reach, but maybe. Could Ohio State? Again, it’s a reach, but maybe. Could Georgia lose in the SEC Championship? Not only ‘maybe’ – I’d say that’s probable. Could Alabama lose to Auburn? Absolutely. But, folks – Clemson ain’t losing.
What would pure chaos be? A Clemson, Baylor, Minnesota, Utah final four? Sounds absurd, right? What sounds equally absurd on the surface is any one conference getting three of the four playoff spots. But, the way the teams are positioned right now, it’s not only possible…it doesn’t really seem that far-fetched at all to think the SEC could possibly get three teams in.
What would have to happen?
- LSU beats Texas A&M.
- Georgia wins the SEC.
- Alabama beats Auburn.
- Clemson loses once.
- Ohio State wins out.
Like I said, I don’t think Clemson’s losing. But, if the team that showed up against North Carolina way back at the beginning of the season shows up in the ACC Championship, could it happen? What about a crazy, zany rivalry game against South Carolina? That’s the least likely outcome of the five listed above.
LSU, most likely, is going to beat Texas A&M. Ohio State, most likely, is going to win out. Georgia could conceivably beat LSU. Alabama could conceivably beat Auburn (they’re currently 3.5-point favorites in this week’s Iron Bowl).
So, I think that would lead to a College Football Playoff that would look like:
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- LSU
- Alabama
Based on “quality of loss,” I don’t see Utah leapfrogging Alabama because that Oregon win wouldn’t mean as much as it would had Oregon not lost to Arizona State. I don’t see Oklahoma leapfrogging Alabama because of the Kansas State loss. Not to mention, the Sooners have a tough row to hoe with games against Oklahoma State and Baylor remaining. The way they’ve played lately, it’s entirely possible they lose again and aren’t a factor at all in the playoff discussion.
The question would come down to Alabama vs. Clemson – and I think it’d be all about “what have you done for me lately?” That Auburn team is way better than their record indicates – they’ve played LSU, Georgia, and Florida tight. They have an elite defense. Not only would that boost Alabama’s resume, but a loss to any of the remaining teams on Clemson’s schedule would do irreparable damage to an already weak body of work.
It’s not as crazy as it seems. But, with two weeks of meaningful football left, it’s just one scenario of what feels like a hundred that could play out. I mean, hell, what happens if LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama lose out? What happens if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech? What if Baylor wins the Big 12?
Georgia, Utah, Minnesota, and Baylor in the final four? Hey, I’m just spitballin’ here.
It’s been fun.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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