Way back on September 19th, the Tennessee Titans went down to Jacksonville and got embarrassed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, 20-7. It knocked the Titans to 1-2 on the season after it started so promisingly against the Cleveland Browns. Adoreé Jackson muffed a punt that the Jags recovered. Soon after, Gardner Minshew slung a touchdown pass to tight end James O’Shaughnessy and it might as well have been over then.
Since that game, the Titans have gone 4-3, made a change at quarterback, and have wiggled back into the playoff race in the AFC. The Jags have gone 3-4, and after Minshew Mania ran wild, Nick Foles is back at quarterback. But, neither of these teams have been particularly impressive (outside of the Titans win over the Kansas City Chiefs).
The Titans are currently 3.5-point favorites. Here’s what I think they need to do to ensure a victory.
Derrick Henry
The Titans offense has to be salivating at the prospects of getting the run game going. The Colts ran for 264 yards against the Jags last week. The Texans rushed for 216 the week before that. So, it stands to reason that this should be a big game for Derrick Henry. That is, if the Titans will actually give him carries early on. They seemed to sort that out against the Chiefs, as Henry had 23 carries for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
Lest we forget, Henry also had his big 238-yard, four touchdown game against the Jags later in the season last year, too. This is just about when he really got going in 2018, so maybe he finds a way to kick it into another gear this week, too.
If he does, and if the Titans are able to run the ball well as a unit, then it could be a long day for the Jags defense.
Improve on 3rd down
The Titans offense has been vastly improved since making the switch to Ryan Tannehill. But, they still aren’t excelling on third down. Converting those third downs will extend drives and keep pressure off of your defense to play perfect football, which has been a stressor on this team on occasion this season. Given how that Jags defense has played in the last couple of games, this could be the unit to get right against.
But, this is about controlling the game. That first game got out of control in a hurry. So, this Jags team has proven capable of burying the Titans early and controlling the game. Running the ball and converting third downs helps the Titans to have a more firm control of this game, and takes that ability away from the Jags.
Lock down D.J. Chark
A lot of the Titans woes in the first game against the Jags was because of the hot start the Jags got. The Titans made some dumb plays that put the Jags in an advantageous position, and they jumped up to 17-0 like it was nothing. That’s in part because the Jags have a legitimate big play threat in D.J. Chark. He caught a beautiful 22-yard touchdown pass in the first game between these two teams, and had eight catches for 104 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts last week.
The Jags don’t have much outside of Chark in terms of offensive firepower, so if the Titans can lock him down, it’ll make their jobs a little easier on defense. Of course, this is all a moot point if Chark doesn’t play. He’s been dealing with a hamstring injury this week, but is expected to play.
The game kicks off from Nissan Stadium at Noon CST on Sunday, where the forecast is showing good football weather. The over/under is set at 41.5. Check out Joshua Huffman’s DFS preview of this game here.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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