Welcome to NFL DFS advice for the Saints at Titans matchup during Week 16 of the 2019 season. Every week, Joshua Huffman will preview some of the main participants from the Tennessee Titans games. These guides will include player pricing, injuries, potential mismatches, and anything else players should consider when choosing players from Tennessee and/or their opponents.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Because SoBros will shutdown content for the remainder of the year and Tennessee’s Week 17 opponent is the same as their Week 15 opponent (Houston Texans), I won’t produce a Week 17 edition. The Week 15 advice would essentially be the same thing. If Tennessee qualifies for the postseason, then I’ll continue this series into January. Otherwise, I’m back to op/ed pieces until Sep. 2020. Happy Holidays.
Saints at Titans: Key Players & Pricing
- Derrick Henry ($7700)
- A.J. Brown (7000)
- Ryan Tannehill (6600)
- Corey Davis (4000)
- Jonnu Smith (3800)
- Titans D/ST (2100)
- Michael Thomas (9300)
- Alvin Kamara (7500)
- Drew Brees (6900)
- Latavius Murray (5100)
- Jared Cook (5000)
- Ted Ginn Jr. (3900)
- Tre’Quan Smith (3500)
- Saints D/ST (2700)
Saints at Titans: Injury Report
- Titans RB Henry has been dealing with a hamstring injury. It hasn’t kept him out of the past four games. Just make sure he suits up for this contest. His Wed. participation was limited.
- Titans CB Adoree’ Jackson returns as a limited participant. Jackson has missed the previous two games. Getting him back would help to contain the NFL’s best wide receiver, Saints WR Thomas.
- Saints S Vonn Bell continues to miss practice because of a knee injury. He missed last week’s game. S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson also missed practice.
- Saints OTs Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstread were both limited during Wed. practice. Keep an eye on both of them. Even if this became an issue, one of Tennessee’s defensive weaknesses has been a consistent pass-rush.
- New Orleans signed CB Janoris Jenkins. A highly respected cornerback with a quality resume, he struggled with the 2019-20 New York Giants. Will that continue or will a change of scenery give them much-needed help in the defensive backfield?
Saints at Titans: Lines (As of Dec. 18)
- Saints (-3)
- Over/Under 50.5 to 51
- Expect this game to play UNDER 50.5 to 51. The Saints offense doesn’t have the same pizazz away from home. It’s still solid—just not historic. The Titans offense could have a little more difficulty than previous weeks running against a Saints defense whose strength is run defense. More of a strength vs strength matchup. While this game has DFS playable assets, it’s not as enticing as the over/under would indicate. Proceed with some caution.
Saints at Titans: NFL DFS Advice
(Ryan Tannehill): We’re at peak pricing for a quarterback whose typically priced in the low-5000s as a starter. This is a fair matchup. It depends on your projected offensive output for Tennessee. My projection is x<28 overall team points. Combined with RB Henry getting his workload, we’re talking a limited ceiling. If you play Tannehill, then stack with WR Brown.
(Drew Brees): Meh. $6900 away from home? We’re talking home/road splits that include 27.7 DK points at home but 11.1 DK points on the road (limited sample size of three games). There are better and more affordable options with greater per-dollar upside. Plus, this feels more like a RB Kamara type of game. Brees is a no go.
(Derrick Henry): The Saints run defense has dropped off a bit lately. They allowed 162 team rushing yards to the San Francisco 49ers during that Week 14 shootout, 48-46. DraftKings still has them as the No. 5 defense against RBs. For $200 cheaper, you can have the running back on the opposing team (RB Kamara). Speaking of Kamara…
(Alvin Kamara): Kamara returns to Tennessee after playing college football at the University of Tennessee. Tennessee has surrendered some huge scores to running backs with PPR capabilities (Christian McCaffery, Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette in garbage time). Although it’s hard to justify paying $7500 for a RB who hasn’t eclipsed 20 points more than one time since Week 4, Kamara faces a prime opportunity with extra motivation to boost.
(Latavius Murray): Not enough playing time. Not enough upside. Consider Murray as nothing more than a vulture.
(A.J. Brown): The combination of RB Henry’s injured hamstring and a better run defense than he’s faced in recent weeks could mean that Tennessee focuses more on the passing game. In the past four weeks, Brown has scored x>=26.5 in three of them. Whether Tennessee wins with a heavier focus on the passing game or finds itself playing from behind, Brown could benefit in both circumstances. That said, $7000 in a run-first offense? Proceed with caution.
(Other Titans WRs not listed): Meh. There’s always that possibility that WR Davis goes off.
(Michael Thomas): Thomas facing a wounded Tennessee secondary that just allowed six receptions for 119 yards to Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins? The Titans could get a returning CB Jackson back from injury. Keep in mind that Thomas holds pretty significant home/road splits (30.7 DK points at home, 19.4 DK points at road). There is a potential floor of x<20.
(Jared Cook): If you’re into “revenge game theory,” then recall that Cook started his career with Tennessee. Cook has established himself as the No. 3 target in New Orleans’ passing offense. The Titans have had some trouble against athletic tight ends. He’s capable of a 15-20ish ceiling. Think six receptions for 70ish yards and a touchdown. He’s playable.
(Summary): Lots of assets at peak pricing in a game whose over/under is likely inflated. Don’t play this game with expectation of another 48-46 shootout. It’s not a guarantee that both teams eclipse 20. At least one should. I wouldn’t play defenses.
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Joshua Huffman was born in Middle Tennessee. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Contact him via email .
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