The sky is not falling because the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots lost this weekend. Sure, an easier match-up would’ve been welcomed for the Tennessee Titans, but I actually think that they have some match-up advantages against this Cincinnati Bengals offense that people enamored by the big play are ignoring. And, you know what? Fair enough. This team won a thrilling game against the Kansas City Chiefs, and they hung 41 on the Baltimore Ravens in two of their final three games. They finished 3-1 down the stretch and that lone loss came in the final week of the season, when they were resting their starters. After sending the Las Vegas Raiders into the offseason, it’s only natural for fans and analysts alike to start hopping on the bandwagon. But, when you expand your scope and look at the broader body of work this season, the Bengals didn’t play a lot of elite defenses.
In fact, they only played four teams that finished in the top 10 in total yards allowed – the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, and the Denver Broncos. Technically, they played the Browns twice, but that 2nd meeting is the one that came in Week 18. I’m not going to hold that against them. They went 1-3 in those games and averaged 17.8 points per game compared to going 9-3 and averaging 30.8 points per game in games against opponents other than those four listed. To me, that warranted a closer look – I wanted to know what exactly the opposing defenses did in those four games to change the dynamic of this Bengals offense. So, I fired ’em up.
I don’t want to misconstrue what I’m suggesting here – I’m not simply saying that because the Titans have a good defense, they should win this game…I’m looking at the good defenses that the Bengals have actually played this season and asking, “are the Titans equipped to do the same thing?” In short, yes. But, let’s get to the game breakdowns anyway.
Week 2: @ Chicago
The recipe for the Bears win here was pretty simple – get up early and play defense. They struck quick, marching down the field and scoring on the opening drive of the game. After that, they were able to control the game with their defense.
Joe Burrow had a terrible game. He threw three interceptions and finished with a QBR of 14.8. The Bears did a good job of putting bodies at the line of scrimmage and playing Cover 2 behind them. They were able to get a good rush on Burrow, and that forced him to make a few errors. They were getting home with a lot of 4-man fronts and covering downfield. They weren’t moving a whole lot pre-snap or disguising much either. Burrow’s only real shot at chunk plays down the field came when he had a clean pocket and his receivers were able to beat their man.
I saw a TON of this – the Bears’ defensive line winning in the trenches, making Burrow uncomfortable and forcing him into questionable decisions because the guys on the back end were covering so well. There’s an opportunity here to hit Ja’Marr Chase over the middle, but Burrow isn’t in a position to see it because of the pressure in his face. And, by the time his tight end squirts out and gets open here, Burrow is already scrambling, not looking down the field, and even if he had seen it, the Bears had pushed them so far behind the line of scrimmage that it wouldn’t have been a gain anyway. For those of you worrying about how much cushion the Titans defensive backs give receivers, take a look at this formation:
Look at that cushion – Burrow looked at this match-up down the field, but the cushion enabled the defensive back to run with the receiver and break up the pass. So, that style can work….you just hope your stout defensive line can get home and effect the throw, and you have to have the defensive backs to run with these receivers.
On defense, the Bengals spaced out their defensive fronts and largely played straight up without a whole lot of disguise or pre-snap movement. They always had a guy deep. They took advantage of Fields’ inexperience and sacked him when he should’ve stepped up in the pocket. Before he was hurt, Andy Dalton was making plays with his legs. If the Bears had better personnel on offense, they would’ve worked the Bengals defense, at least on this day.
Week 9: vs. Cleveland
Whereas the Bears just lined up and beat the Bengals with what they showed ’em, the Browns mixed things up quite a bit more. Early on, they showed heavy boxes, routinely putting eight guys up front only for two guys to drop back into coverage. They worked in some Cover 2, gave those Bengals receivers cushions (like I showed you from the Bears game), and showed a lot of different formations. They almost always had a safety back deep, keeping an eye on things, and eliminating options for Burrow down the field.
The Browns won this one in grand, disastrous fashion, 41-16 in Cincinnati, but I think there were a couple of ‘intangible’ sort of things that worked in their favor. For one, this was the game after the whole Odell Beckham Jr. fiasco in Cleveland. Players talked about feeling desperate to get the win with their season seemingly hanging in the balance, and wanting to prove they weren’t succumbing to the OBJ “distraction” or whatever the hell was going on there. Point being…the Browns were extra motivated for this one. Plus, I’m not really sure what the Bengals game plan was on offense in this one. They seemed stubbornly committed to the run even with the Browns loading up the box early on. There was space for Burrow to throw early, but for whatever reason, the Bengals stuck with the run plays.
One thing I noticed right away as an area of improvement by Burrow from the Bears game to this one was his ability in getting away from the pass rush in order to throw the ball. But, he had another forced error that absolutely hamstrung the team – throwing into another tight window that resulted in a pick-six and and an early deficit. The Browns did a good job of generating pressure, but they weren’t exactly successful rushing with just four. Their defensive backs did an excellent job of covering down field, and being in the right place at the right time to intercept a couple of balls. But, all in all, I don’t think the Browns won plays at nearly the same rate the Bears did. The Bengals just shot themselves in the foot at the worst times.
On offense, the Browns were able to attack the Bengals defense with Nick Chubb and their ground game, some screens, and some timely deep shots set up by tremendous pass protection. Sound familiar, Titans fans?
Week 14: vs. 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers like to muddy things up, run the ball, and play defense. They’re going to pay a physical brand of football, and this game was no different – hard-hitting from the jump. The Bengals did well to answer the bell early on, matching the 49ers’ intensity. But, after a tight first quarter, the 49ers jumped up 17-6 and the Bengals struggled to catch up. That’s a common thread in all three of these games so far. Mistakes reared their ugly heads again when the Bengals muffed a punt and the 49ers cashed in on the ensuing drive.
In the 4th quarter, the 49ers were beat on a play late in which the coverage just didn’t hold up long enough and they couldn’t get Burrow down. The Bengals made this a game late because the 49ers didn’t have success rushing with four and weren’t winning in coverage down the field. The Bengals sent it to overtime on an absolutely unreal throw from Burrow to Chase. The 49ers played way too much zone, and way too soft zone on top of that, late in the game. But, it showed that simply getting to Burrow isn’t enough. You still have to cover on the back end because Burrow will just throw it up to his guys….they’re good enough to come down with it, so why not?
I do want to mention the empty sets that these Bengals love to run because I think the 49ers put the perfect defense for ’em on tape. You absolutely can’t get beat on these routinely or else it’ll be game over.
You have five different 1:1 battles going on in this play. It’s hard to guard NFL wide receivers that long, so the longer the play goes, the more it benefits the receivers working to get open. If you don’t get to Burrow on plays like this, he’ll make you pay. Thankfully for the 49ers, nobody blocked the linebacker and he was able to blow this one up.
I did notice that Burrow was remarkably better with the rush breathing down his neck than way back in Week 2 against the Bears, and he did a lot more of taking what the defense was giving him and throwing underneath in this one too….perhaps another indicator of his continued maturation as a pro quarterback.
Week 15: @ Broncos
The one game I’m looking at here that the Bengals actually won, and guess what – they happened to not let their opponent score first in this one! And you know what else? They didn’t have any turnovers! The Broncos had a really nice game plan for this Bengals offense, too. A sure-tackling front enabled the Broncos to drop more guys back in coverage. They made a concerted effort to key in on Chase early. Tee Higgins made some big catches early as a result of that, but you’d take that over getting beat deep any day of the week. They also seemed content to just sit back and let the Bengals throw underneath and focus on making the tackle. I didn’t see a whole lot of flat out pressure generated on Burrow, but that front was absolutely ready for those runs on the perimeter that the Bengals love.
Neither team was really able to find success throwing the ball down the field. And, the Broncos weren’t afraid to run the ball at all in this one. It came down to who was going to make the big mistake first. That ended up being the Broncos – fumbling after a promising drive that could’ve swung the game in their favor.
This might’ve been the best secondary that the Bengals played all season. Justin Simmons had a ridiculous unblocked sack on Burrow. The secondary forced incompletions, mixed up their coverages, and clogged up throwing lanes in an overall disruptive performance. There was one bad bust in coverage that led to the Tyler Boyd touchdown. That with the fumble drove the final nail in the coffin for the Broncos. But, let’s just take a moment to appreciate this coverage – where the hell was Burrow supposed to throw this ball? The Broncos took away everything deep, played tight in 1:1 situations, and had a front that was capable of beating the Bengals offensive line. This could’ve easily been a loss for the Bengals.
Takeaways
The Bengals are going to be sexy picks this week. Based on what these four teams threw at them, I’m not so sure there is some schematic key that beats them. But, they’ve shown that if you fluster them early, tackle well, and can hold your water in coverage with solid play up front, they’re a different football team.
- Burrow definitely performs worse under duress – he eats sacks and forces throws into windows that are too tight, but it’s not as simple as just generating pressure on him. You have to cover long enough in the secondary to either close on the sack or force the tight windows we saw Burrow throw into on his interceptions. Burrow threw 14 interceptions this season, five of them came against the Bears and Browns. The Bengals are 0-4 when Burrow throws more than one interceptions. The Bengals are 5-0 when Burrow is sacked two times or less. He hasn’t thrown a pick since 12/5 in a 41-22 loss to the Chargers. It’s been a long time since that Week 2 game against the Bears and Burrow has gotten a lot better and a lot more comfortable facing pressure. But, if the Titans can sack him and keep those windows tight in coverage, they can force him into mistakes, and if they do, it bodes well for them.
- Win with a four-man front – how do you help to insure your coverage holds up downfield? Put some extra bodies back there! You know what affords you the luxury of doing so?! Successfully rushing the passer with a four-man front.
- Cover downfield, and you damn well better cover your guys when the Bengals come out in an empty set – create those tight windows so that when your front does force an error, you are there to capitalize on it.
- Score first – It’s clear the Bengals were a different team when forced to chase opponents. They were 6-1 in games they scored first in. They were 4-6 in games during which their opponents scored first.
- Offenses can have success on in-breaking routes against the Bengals defense, and this is a unit that can be run on despite what their “5th-ranked rushing defense” would suggest. They line up with a ton of space in each gap, just begging for a back like Derrick Henry to take one to the house.
- Play Chase smart and do everything you can to keep him in front of you. The Bengals are going to come up with multiple ways to get him the ball, and the Titans need to be ready for it. But, if you can make him a non-factor, it greatly changes the big play factor for the Bengals offense.
- Don’t let the flashy highlights fool you – this Bengals team DOES want to run the football, and they’re pretty good at it with Joe Mixon. But, they also like to pitch the ball to him and get him out on the edges and utilize Chase in jet sweeps to find creative ways to get the run game going. The Titans will need to defend the perimeters in this one.
- Just tackle. FFS, just tackle.
Can the Titans do these things? Well….they damn sure check a lot of the boxes, don’t they? No matter how the Titans want to play this Bengals offense, they have the personnel to do it. I’m not saying the Titans are going to blow out the Bengals by any stretch of the imagination – a million different variables can impact a game, and these Titans have still shown us that they’re capable of dropping games they shouldn’t. But, if the Titans can execute well, they are built to be the Bengals kryptonite. Don’t let the narrative fool you – the Titans -should- win this game comfortably.
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Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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