I have what I think the kids would describe as a hot take these days: I think the AFC South is actually going to be a lot better than people are initially giving it credit for. Famous last words, I know. But, I think that the Texans and Jags made tremendous strides through the coaching changes they made and through the draft. The Titans will still be the Mike Vrabel Titans. And, the Colts have all the ingredients to make a run. One thing I don’t think people are talking about enough is the fact that the AFC South draws the NFC East this season, which should help the AFC South teams hit those overs, baby. Today, I’m lookin’ at those win totals among the division (odds are according to FanDuel Sportsbook).
Houston Texans: 4.5 – If you’ve been keeping up with my work this summer, you already know I’m hitching my wagon to the Texans. They’re my dark horse pick in the AFC, and at this point, I’m all in. People probably think it’s a bit, but I swear it’s not. This was a competitive team in 2021 that has a capable quarterback, an offensive coordinator who has a track record of getting the most out of his quarterbacks, and they absolutely destroyed the draft. Dameon Pierce is going to be a stud. I think the Texans will surprise some people, perhaps even a couple of division rivals. Five wins is easy for me to see on this schedule. Give me that over.
Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 – Maybe I’m just fucking stupid. I mean, that’s always a possibility here, right? I could just be a total moron. But, I’m not buying the hype surrounding the Colts right now. There’s a lot of projecting with this team right now, and that’s assuming they reach their potential, which they haven’t quite done under Frank Reich just yet. Is Matt Ryan an upgrade over Carson Wentz? Sure. Is Jonathan Taylor the best running back in the league? No, but I’ll give you a ‘sure’ for the sake of the conversation here, Colts fans. But Taylor’s MVP caliber performance didn’t equate to wins, and I’m not sure that just bringing in Ryan is enough to get this offense back to being the explosive juggernaut it once was. I think it could be back-to-back 9-8 seasons for the Colts, meaning I guess I’m taking the under here. *shrugs*
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5 – I don’t think the Jags are going to come out and be world beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but I think they’ll be a tough out in 2022. Doug Pederson brings a stabilizing presence as the head coach, and given how heavily they drafted defense this year with the talent they have at running back, I expect this is a team that will try to get back to basics. They’re going to want to pound you on both sides of the ball, and I think they have the talent in place to do so. It’s just a matter of whether or not they can stop the big play on defense and whether or not they can manufacture the big play on offense when they need to. I’m probably going to stay away from this one, as I could see this being one of those teams that goes 5-12, but loses 10 one-score games or something like that. But, I ain’t gonna be mad at you if you take the over either.
Tennessee Titans: 9.5 – I don’t expect the same regression that so many are touting in the national media these days. And, I definitely don’t understand where the narrative that the Titans didn’t get better this offseason came from (just kidding – it’s from people who didn’t watch the Titans saying Ryan Tannehill stinks and the Titans traded away AJ Brown). I love the pieces they added on offense, but let’s be real here, the defense is going to be the star of the show this season. This could very well be the best defense in the AFC by the time it’s all said and done. That’s not sexy, and maybe that’s why people are sleeping on this team, but I still think it’s ever bit the Super Bowl contender it was an offseason ago. Give me that over.
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Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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