Welcome all degenerate gamblers back into our weekly American football betting column here on the SoBros Network, Tank the 401k. Call your bookie and empty those retirement accounts (actually, don’t really do that – this is just sarcasm. Our lawyers say we shouldn’t claim to be experts on anything because we’re not)! Each week, the SoBros team up to offer their five locks of the week – obviously, we’re not professionals here so take this advice with a grain of salt and don’t sue us if you piss all of your money away. That’s not our fault. Okay, I think we’re all set here – here are this week’s SoBros gambling picks.
After looking at the loaded AFC a week ago, we’re shifting gears and talking about the NFC, which looks about as top heavy as it has in a long time. Outside of the Eagles and the 49ers, it’s anybody’s ball game. That should make for a fun playoff race this season, but as for betting, shit…we might as well just be throwing darts and seeing where they land. Let’s try and do some prognosticatin’ this morning!
2023 NFC Division Futures
NFC East: Eagles @ -110 – I hate going with such a heavy favorite because of the value, but while I like what the Giants are doing and the Cowboys have a wealth of talent, I don’t know how you look at this Eagles roster without thinking it is clearly the deepest and most talented in the division. They’re deep in the trenches. They’re deep at running back. They have one of if not the best 1-2 punch at receiver in the NFL, and a quarterback coming off of a season that had him in the MVP discussion. I get that the Chiefs have the pedigree, but I’m thinking the Eagles should be the Super Bowl favorites as things stand here in July.
NFC North: Packers @ +350 – The odds aren’t as long as the Titans in the AFC South, but I’m going with the Packers as my surprise team in the NFC. I’m a fan of the system they run on offense, and they really hit the offensive side of the ball hard in this year’s draft to load up around Jordan Love. Christian Watson, a healthy Romeo Doubs, and rookie Jayden Reed make for a sneaky good trio of wide receivers. I wasn’t the biggest Luke Musgrave fan, but if the skill set translates to the NFL, he could be a dynamic tight end. Even that pick was supplemented by the selection of Tucker Kraft later on. Love could surprise, too – since I see a higher ceiling here, I’m going with the +350 value. The Bears still need another draft class to stockpile more talent. The Lions have been slow starters the last couple of seasons. And, the Vikings were a little lucky in 2022, which is to say their record was not indicative of their talent. The Packers could sneak up on some people this season.
NFC South: Falcons @ +220 – Do we have to talk about the NFC South this year? I guess so. I’m going with the Falcons for a few reasons – one, it’s the abundance of talent they have at the skill positions…Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts. This offense is going to be a ton of fun to watch with Arthur Smith calling the plays. Two, they’re underrated in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And three, I like the moves they made to retool their secondary. If it weren’t for Desmond Ridder at quarterback, this would easily be the most complete roster in this division (and hell, it still may be). They have a huge question mark at quarterback, but I believe Ridder will be steady enough to keep the Ferrari on the tracks. I think this will be a two-horse race between the Falcons and Saints, but I won’t be surprised if the Panthers make it interesting. Still, I’m taking the +220 value here with the Falcons and all that talent.
NFC West: 49ers @ -165 – I’m going with another heavy favorite here, but the state of the rosters for the Rams and Cardinals are bleak. The Seahawks have built quite the roster and have some really good depth at most spots, but I still worry about their pass rush and I’m not in love with the idea of banking on another miracle year from Geno Smith. So, I’m going with the deepest and most talented roster here. A leap from Trey Lance would really put this 49ers team into another stratosphere.
Parlay all four, bet placed at +4315
McCash’s Picks
NFC WEST
When looking at the NFC West from a distance heading into the season, it is apparent that the San Francisco 49ers are leaps and bounds ahead of their divisional foes despite one major glaring issue. Who is going to quarterback the 49ers has become an annual game to play for Bay Area fans the last few years and the 2023-24 edition of the team will carry on the tradition.
The question remains if Brock Purdy will be healthy enough to start the season at the helm. If he is then he will start for the Niners and try to pick up where he left off last year. If his UCL has been rehabbed to the point of being cleared to go than the battle for the starting job will be an interesting one between the veteran Sam Darnold and 2021 first-round pick Trey Lance.
In the end, when you have a defense the caliber of San Francisco’s, an all-world tight end in George Kittle, a nearly impossible running back to tackle in Christian McCaffrey and a can do everything athlete like Deebo Samuel it really doesn’t matter who is throwing the ball.
The Arizona Cardinals are a complete dumpster fire that cannot get out of its own way so there is no reason to waste more than a sentence on them. The Los Angeles Rams have had to have had the biggest fall from a Super Bow winning season to the next of any team when they finished 5-12 in 2022. The Rams are bound to bounce back some but do not have the talent to contend for the division crown.
The resurrection of Geno Smith’s career in Seattle last year was one of the more enjoyable storylines in the NFL and one of the best receiving corps in the league the Seahawks should find themselves in firm control of second place in the West and shoe-in for a Wild Card spot.
The Rams improvement and the continued success of Geno in the Pacific northwest will however not be enough to keep the 49ers from securing another NFC west crown. WINNER-SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
NFC NORTH
There’s no way the Green Bay Packers can compete for the NFC north championship after losing a four-time MVP quarterback, right? Surely, they will be resting comfortably on the division’s basement floor by the end of the season. To quote the genius of a one Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.”
This is the first time the Packers have found themselves attempting to replace a surefire first-ballot hall of famer who decided to move on like a jilted lover. This go around the Cheeseheads find themselves clamoring over 2020 first round pick Jordan Love. Fans and the team have been curious to see what the QB has and the time is now.
Love is backed by a stingy defense, flanked by a quality running back tandem as well as a big-play receiver in Christian Watson. Aaron Rodgers did not leave the cupboard bare by no means.
The longest running doormat of the NFL has finally awoken from its slumber and is finally ready to make a serious move. The Detroit Lions under Dan Campbell have become a serious playoff contender. The Rams basically gave away Jared Goff in the Matthew Stafford trade and was able to display some pinpoint accuracy last season while carving up some divisions defensive backfields last season. The Lions biggest question is on defense as they were the main reason the team started 1-6 but if DC Aaron Glenn continue to build off the changes he made that helped the team finish the season on a 8-2 run then Detroit just might show the Packers no love in the division.
The Minnesota Vikings are the defending division champions and nearly no one is expecting them to repeat, myself included. I have never had much confidence in Kirk Cousins and despite having last year’s Offensive Player of the Year in Justin Jefferson there’s not much more for defenses to fear. Adam Thielen moved on to Carolina and RB Dalvin Cook is one of many casualties of the NFL’s sudden disregard in the value of the position. With those two pieces missing and their replacements still in question it is hard to imagine the Vikings repeating.
The Chicago Bears could possible be a playoff dark horse if Justin Fields can take that next step in his third year. Da Bears upgraded their running game and offensive lines during the off-season and the addition of receiver DJ Moore will make Chicago a tough out for their opponents but even those additions and their QBs improvement will not be enough to pull the division title from the Motor City. WINNER – DETROIT LIONS
NFC EAST
Can you name the last time a team in the NFC East won back-to-back titles? The last team to do it 18 years ago could very well be the same team to end the streak of a different team winning each year. The Philadelphia Eagles will have their sights on goals way bigger than winning the division but the best way for them to repeat as NFC Champions and get back to the Super Bowl is to begin by repeating as NFC East champs.
The talent is there and is unquestionable but there is an annoying fanbase that is sure to believe that it is their teams year and their teams destiny to win the division as well as the Lombardi Trophy. The Dallas Cowboys find themselves coming off back-to-back 12-5 records and still in search of their Super Bowl appearance since 1995. If Dallas’ offense can come any where close to matching their top five defense then the streak of rotating division champions could reach an 19th year but the Big D will need an extremely cohesive unit to keep Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown from repeating.
It is not hard to see that the East is really a two team division but the two bottom feeders are taking the right steps to contend just maybe not this year. The NY Giants have built a strong defensive unit and have added decided to invest long term in quarterback Daniel Jones by adding TE Darren Waller and drafting C John Micheal Schmitz in the second round out of Minnesota. In order for the Giants to have a chance in the East this year, they will have to basically flip their 0-5 record against the Eagles and Cowboys from a season ago.
If the Washington Commanders could play defense the entire game they might come out ahead. Relying on a fifth-round QB to take you to the next level is asking a lot and it is unknown if Sam Howell is up to the task. Washington is in the same boat as the Giants as neither of them have the offensive firepower to take down both Dallas and Philly. WINNER – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
NFC SOUTH
The G.O.A.T. is gone and boy did he leave the QB drawer bare in the NFC South. All of the divisional defensive units that had to play Tom Brady twice a year are rejoicing that Tom Brady has ridden off into the sunset.
All four teams in the NFC South will have a new signal caller at the helm from last year. The Carolina Panthers drafted Bryce Young out of Alabama, the Atlanta Falcons turned to Desmond Ridder midway through last season so he will make his debut as the season opening starter for the first time in his career, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are letting journeyman Baker Mayfield be the first to lead the team after the retirement of Tom Brady and the New Orleans Saints are hoping they finally found the heir to Drew Brees in former Las Vegas Raider Derek Carr.
I feel pretty confident that no one is expecting the Super Bowl champs to come out of this division after the Bucs won it with a 8-9 record and the three other teams were tied at 7-9.
The Carolina Panthers added some nice pieces on offense to go along with their Heisman Trophy winning QB but the uncertainty of how a rookie quarterback will respond to the speed of an NFL defense week in and week out is to be determined. The Panthers will be a tough team to beat but will fall a bit short in the divisional race.
Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith has been trying to repeat the magic he created as the OC for the Tennessee Titans with little to no success. Maybe Bijan Robinson is the next Derrick Henry, but neither Drake London or Mack Hollins are A.J. Brown. If Desmond Ridder couldn’t beat out Marcus Mariota to start last season, who is expecting him to be like the guy that took Mariota’s job in Nashville?
Granted, the Falcons were very successful in the running game last year averaging 160 yards a game but had to rush over 55% of the time to get those yards. If they cannot get more from their passing game this season then they are doomed to stare at a similar record like last season.
The good news in Tampa is that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are there to catch passes. The bad news is that the attempts are coming from either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. The bad news doesn’t stop there. The Bucs also were the worst rushing offense in the league last year and does not look as there will be much improvement. The one silver lining is that the Tampa Bay Lightning season is right around the corner.
The signing of Carr in New Orleans is expected to improve on the pitiful 19.4 points scored per game last season. That’s down 8.5 points from the 15 seasons Drew Brees and Sean Payton were running the Saints offense. After nine seasons with the Raiders Carr left as the franchise leader in passing yards and touchdowns.
On paper the Saints have the most talented offense in the division but we know paper only beats rock. If the Saints can get a full season from Michael Thomas and keep Alvin Kamara from serving jail time, then the Saints should easily win an NFC south division that no one should brag about winning this year. WINNER – NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
SEASON STATS
- McCash last week: (0-0)
- McCash’s 2022 W-L: (30-38) – 44.1%
- Stoney last week: (0-0)
- Stoney’s 2022 W-L: (36-32-1) – 52.9%
- Stoney’s money spent 2023: $5
- Stoney’s money earned 2023: $0
- SoBros last week: (0-0) – 0%
- SoBros 2022 W-L: (66-70-1) – 48.5%
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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