Every year, I make it a point to sit down and revisit all of my preseason predictions in college football and the NFL. To me, it’s only the right thing to do. My hope is that you’re not following along with my work because I’m always right (I mean, I’m right a lot, but you get what I’m saying). My hope is that you’re following along with my work because you trust that I’m not just trying to farm clicks and gain impressions. I mean what I say and I say what I mean. That builds trust, and part of that is acknowledging when I’m wrong. Personally, I think every (f)analyst should do something like this, but we all know damn good and well why that rarely happens. I’m going to be different for you guys.
I went back and listened to our season preview episode of the College Football Roundup from all the way back in August. I jotted down every prediction I made and intend to review them here. All in all, I think it was a pretty good year for me. There were a few things that I ended up being just egregiously horrendous on, but by and large, I think I had good reason to believe the things I got wrong, and on a couple of them, I know I wasn’t alone in thinking what I thought. Alright – hand on my heart, let’s review these.
What I got wrong
“MTSU has a shot in the C-USA” – Oof…it ends up being one of the worst years at MTSU that I, a proud alum, can remember. It was so bad that they finally ripped the bandaid off and parted ways with Rick Stockstill, who was coaching the program back when I was actually a student there in the mid 2000s.
“Penn State will be better than Ohio State” – When will I learn? Penn State could win the National Championship playing in the SEC, but as long as they have to play Ohio State and Michigan every year, they’re a lock for 10-2 or worse.
Wisconsin: Big Ten dark horse – Oh, boy. I thought a new offensive philosophy and a new head coach would refresh this sleeping giant of a program in a weak division. Dead wrong.
“Watch out for Texas Tech!” – I called them one of the potential surprise teams in the Big 12, and the surprise ended up being that they were no threat to the conference at all.
Anything relating to UTSA – I said they should be among the favorites to represent the Group of Five in the New Years Six, and even went as far as predicting a UTSA vs. Texas Fiesta Bowl. While they eventually got things settled, they were never anywhere near the Fiesta Bowl hunt.
Georgia to the CFP – I damn near had a 100% hit rate on playoff teams this year.
What I got right
“Joe Milton is not Anthony Richardson” – Really went out on a limb with this one…
“I put my money on Alabama this year” – I thought they’d be SEC champs. I even hit the exacta with a bet on Alabama defeating Georgia in the title game. Subscribe to our Patreon and check the preseason Tank the 401k columns for the proof. It’s there.
Texas wins the Big 12 – I got this one right, but to be fair, it was not a huge vote of confidence. It was more or less by proxy of the rest of the conference looking “meh” at best.
“Watch out for the Kansas Jayhawks” – Hey, I think they were good enough for me to count calling Kansas a surprise team in the Big 12 a successful prediction.
“TCU isn’t going to make any noise” – They had no business being ranked as highly as they were in the preseason poll and I knew it.
“I don’t love that Utah’s biggest games are on the road” – That program is so tough, but man, it was hard to look at that schedule and think they were going to have anywhere near the success they’d had the previous two seasons.
“Washington wins the Pac-12” – My exact words were that I felt “the stars are aligned for a special season for Washington.” I think it’s safe to call that ‘getting it right.’
“Florida State wins the ACC” – Like Texas, should I really feel good about this one? Looking at that conference, who else was it going to be?
Michigan, Alabama, and Washington to the CFP – Like I said, I don’t think I’ve ever nailed the playoff field to this degree. If only I’d been higher on Texas in the preseason.
“I wanna see Michigan and Alabama beat the shit out of each other” – Not a prediction per se, but what a crazy thing to say only for Michigan and Alabama to meet at the Rose Bowl and bump meat in a heavyweight title fight?
National Champion pick: Michigan – I’ve been doing this for 10.5 years now, and I don’t think I’ve ever successfully picked the National Champion in August. I need to order myself a trophy for this one.
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Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley.
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