You know it’s May when we’re talking about future ‘Rookie of the Year’ honors. There’s not a whole lot else going on in the football world now that the draft is over. So, there’s no better time to be digging into those wild futures bets with the high odds now that we know, by and large, what each NFL roster is going to look like. It’s always a crapshoot this time of year, but just like drilling down a game during the season, I think there’s a way that you can pin down good value while still having a realistic shot of winning some money. That’s why I’m so intrigued by the fact that the first round pick of the Tennessee Titans, cornerback Caleb Farley, is on the board. There’s value there – currently, he has the 13th best odds, at +2500, in the race. So, he’s a long shot. But, there are a couple of things I look at when trying to determine value.
One, and most importantly, I look at whether or not the player has the opportunity to make an impact. Farley does. I like that about these odds more than anything. The Titans are in dire need of a starting corner. Assuming Farley is healthy, he has to come in and claim one of the starting cornerback spots Week 1. And, if he is the top 10 talent that a lot of analysts claim him to be, you’d figure that he’s going to play the bulk of the season, too. That gives him plenty of chances to make a splash in the DROTY race.
Second, I look at the competition – what’s the board looking like right now? Who would Farley have to beat out? Micah Parsons is currently the favorite for the honors, the “Saquon Barkley of linebackers,” as he’s been called. I love the pick for the Dallas Cowboys. Parsons is dropped into a similar situation to Farley’s – an electric playmaker dropped onto a roster in a position of immediate need. Given his draft position and his skill level, I have no issue with Parsons being the favorite at all. But, is his situation that much better than Farley’s? I don’t know – again, we’re talking about how things stand here in May….but I don’t see as wide of a gap as the odds would suggest (Parsons is at +400 to win).
I love Farley’s mentality – Paul Kuharsky quoted him as saying, “My best fit in the defense is, ‘Caleb, you’ve got that guy.'” That’s what the Titans want to do – get good man-coverage corners, and get creative with the defensive front. This guy’s a dog, and the Titans needed a little bit of that – so again, that creates opportunity for Farley to stand out early enough in his career to get a full DROTY type of campaign in 2021.
History isn’t necessarily on his side as the cornerback position has only won eight of the DROTY awards since 1967. But, if it’s any indicator of future success, the position has gotten a little momentum in recent years. Two of those eight corners won in the last six years (Marshon Lattimore in 2017, Marcus Peters in 2015). It’s definitely a linebacker/pass rusher award – but I don’t think there’s a Chase Young or a Nick Bosa in this draft class. This field is wide open, especially as it stands here in May, so if you’re not concerned about the back issues with Farley, I think +2500 odds are definitely worth a flyer.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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