Congratulations to anilprao88. This individual was the DraftKings DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $225K Mini 8’s contest on May 11, 2018. anilprao88 won this grand prize pool and its $25000 prize when the lineup scored 225.9 points.
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecasting. This series was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that will assist you when constructing your future submissions. What kind of pivots are others making on their teams. What are their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $25000 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $25K Winning Lineup: anilprao88, 5-11-18
This roster used the entirety of its $50000 salary. This slate featured 14 matchups.
Another lucrative slate featuring a five-player game stack. Unlike many of the previously covered winners, anilprao88 didn’t pin his hopes on stacking against a pitcher who was due for regression. This $25K roster was similar to the first one that was covered on petteytheft89. Most users were focused on attacking Kendall Graveman and his 8.89 ERA spot-starting against the New York Yankees. What anilprao88 did was focus his attention on the other side: former Oakland Athletics star Sonny Gray.
SP: Chris Sale ($12400, 15.6%)
SP: Luke Weaver ($7900, 17.4%)
Combined Salary: $20300
Points: 60.90
One pitcher was a stud. The other pitcher was in a quality matchup and due for a progression. Sale continued to expose the Toronto Blue Jays vs LHP. His nine innings included 15 strikeouts and three earned runs in a no-decision. Weaver performed just long enough to earn the victory against a weak San Diego Padres offense.
1B: Matt Olson ($3600, 3.1%)
2B: Jed Lowrie ($4300, 2.9%)
3B: Matt Chapman ($3600, 2.0%)
SS: Marcus Semien ($3700, 2.7%)
OF: Matt Joyce ($3000, 6.2%)
Combined Salary: $18200
Points: 91
This is referred to as a contrarian stack. A few weeks ago, petteytheft89 had similar luck when he stacked against Mike Leake when everyone was salivating to stack against the pitcher on the other side: Carson Fulmer. It’s important to consider both ends of the spectrum. What appears like easy money can prove as Fool’s Gold. The real gold is located in the opponent’s dugout.
People were high on the Yankees. From Apr. 21 through May 9, New York had won 17 of 18 games. A home game against a West Coast team calling-up a nearly 9.00-ERA pitcher sounds like a lock. The Athletics had lost three consecutive games entering this matchup.
That’s not how professional sports work. Graveman allowed just one earned run through six innings. The Athletics hit four homers en route to a 10-5 victory.
anilprao88 included the No. 1-3, 5-6 hitters in his stack. Three of those four hitters had homers. The other hitter, Khris Davis, was the No. 4 hitter and excluded from his lineup. No harm done. All three of his outfielders scored higher than Davis. So his stack worked out perfectly.
C: Manny Pina ($3000, 10.9%)
Points: 25
Why randomly take a catcher with a .638 OPS as of May 14? Pina’s career vs RHP include a 93wRC+ and .171 ISO. That’s nothing fascinating. What you need to consider is that he’s an affordable $3000 catcher playing at Coors Field against Chad Bettis, a pitcher whose 2.05 ERA did not match his career 4.73 ERA or current 4.87 SIERA.
Correction needed. The Brewers were happy to oblige in an 11-10 victory.
OF: Michael Brantley ($4300, 5.4%)
Points: 25
The Indians facing a below-average pitcher in Jason Hammel. His 4.78 ERA was a tad better than his 5.15 SIERA. Brantley is a LHB with a career 123 wRC+ and .174 ISO vs RHP. Hammel struggles against LHB. Even Indians’ opposing pitcher Trevor Bauer had sabermetric data suggesting a deep regression. This game had the makings of a high-scoring affair. That’s what happened.
OF: Starling Marte ($4200, 2.3%)
Points: 24
An example of how limited sample sizes create misleading data. Andrew Suarez and his 3.06 ERA and 2.89 SIERA look good on the outside. Then you see he has only made three career starts heading into this contest. The Pirates shelled him for five earned runs through four innings en route to an 11-2 victory.
So anilprao88 picked a contrarian stack, found a productive hitter vs a regression-candidate pitcher, found another hitter in a great splits advantage against another weak pitcher, then wasn’t fooled over Suarez’s misleading numbers. A little bit of everything from this roster.
CLOSING NOTE
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:
Lixitandstixit, $7.5K, 5-10-18
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
