Congratulations to dacoltz. This individual was the DraftKings DFS MLB GPP winner of the MLB $225K Mini 8’s contest on May 4, 2018. dacoltz won this grand prize pool and its $25000 prize when the lineup scored 223.9 points. According to Steve Buzzard on Twitter, “Staff writer at Footballguys. DFS football, baseball and basketball junkie, username Dacoltz.”
Please note that this isn’t a projections forecasting. This series was created to analyze what may have gone through the minds of those who created the teams. Maybe you’ll pick up on trends that will assist you when constructing your future submissions. What kind of pivots are others making on their teams. What are their strategies? Are there any reoccurring trends?
Let’s analyze the $25000 lineup.
DFS MLB DraftKings $25K Winning Lineup: dacoltz, 5-4-18
This roster used $49600 of its $50000 salary. This slate featured 15 matchups.
Another winning lineup that featured a mega-team stack against an exploitable pitcher who was overlooked due to slate size and team circumstances. dacoltz created a unique roster involving a five-player San Francisco Giants stack, a two-player Washington Nationals stack, and Oakland Athletics first baseman Matt Olson. Then he topped it off with a reasonably low-owned pitcher who completed one of MLB’s all-time greatest pitching performances.
SP: Gerrit Cole (12400, 15.1%)
SP: Daniel Mengden (6400, 8.2%)
Combined Salary: $18800
Points: 76.9
Let’s consider some of the top pitching performances of the past couple weeks. Luis Severino vs Houston Astros. Justin Verlander vs New York Yankees. Sean Manaea vs Boston Red Sox. Gerrit Cole (60.05) and his 16-strikeout, one-hitter performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
What can a daily fantasy enthusiast gain from this small sample size? Don’t write off a starting pitcher due to a difficult matchup. Ace-caliber pitchers often save their top stuff for the toughest opponents and biggest games. Those opponents have explosive offenses that are prone to strikeouts.
It’s easy to gravitate toward the J.A. Happ vs Tampa Bay Rays or Jose Berrios vs Chicago White Sox. From experience, I can say that these high-ownership plays will fail—a lot. A game-changing pivot can come when putting your faith on a great pitcher overcoming a great offense. Projecting a pitcher’s motivation and psychology is just as important as determining their overall skill-sets and matchups.
C: Buster Posey ($3900, 4.4%)
2B: Alen Hanson ($3000, 6.2%)
3B: Evan Longoria ($3900, 1.9%)
SS: Brandon Crawford ($2800, 5.5%)
OF: Andrew McCutchen ($3800, 2.6%)
Combined Salary: $17400
Points: 76
The Atlanta Braves were coming off an impressive series sweep of the New York Mets. They had won seven of their last eight games. Mike Soroka and Ronald Acuna Jr. made their debuts. Hype train in fast motion! People were taking notice. A home matchup against a San Francisco Giants team featuring a BABIP-due-to-regress Chris Stratton appeared like another Grade-A matchup.
Wrong! Not only that, but what proved as the play, as often happens, was the team they faced. The Giants took advantage of Mike Foltynewicz, a young starter whose BABIP was .50 below and ERA was 2.16 above their career totals. SIERA indicated that his future ERA would rise more than a point. dacoltz’s stack included the No. 1-3, 5-6 hitters. His lineup excluded No. 4 hitter Brandon Belt. A bit surprising when one considers he had been one of the team’s hottest hitters. But his pivot was the right play.
Not the most productive stack. Three of the five entrants combined for 31 points on $10700. The rest of his lineup made up for the deficiencies.
OF: Bryce Harper ($4000, 10.7%)
OF: Matt Adams ($5500, 7.4%)
Combined Salary: $9500
Points: 52
Moving Bryce Harper to the leadoff spot has rejuvenated a Nationals team that had fallen to No. 4 in the NL East. Along with Adams, Harper and the Nationals offense have went on a tear that was similar to earlier this season and much of 2017. Adams’ promotion (who had four double-digit scoring games from May 1-7) has given Trea Turner and Harper more protection throughout the lineup.
Always consider Harper and Adams against right-handed pitching, especially against a middling pitcher or one who has major split differences (e.g. Lance Lynn, Zach Eflin).
1B: Matt Olson ($3900, 5.8%)
Points: 19
dacoltz choosing Olson appears due to a splits advantage. Cashner’s ERA was about a point higher than his career total, however, his SIERA suggests it’s about right. His 2017 xFIP vs LHB was 5.96. His career vs LHB is nearly 4.61 xFIP and 1.46 WHIP. Very poor numbers. Olson is a LHB whose career numbers include 156wRC+ and .401wOBA vs RHP as opposed to 79wRC+ and .286wOBA vs LHP.
Looks like maybe leaving Belt out was due to dacoltz wanting a piece of the Orioles’ pitching staff. Pivoting from Belt to Olson was the final bump to get him over the hump into a nice payday.
CLOSING NOTE
Anyone who’d like to discuss winning teams (whether it’s their own or someone else’s) can email me. Below are the most recent installments of the series. Visit my profile to check out the full selection. I started creating these in late April. I’ll do as many of them as time allows.
Previous MLB GPP Winners Study Guides:
Joshua Huffman was born and collegiately edumacated in Middle Tennessee. That said, Huffman spent 13-plus years with the type of Northern Wisconsinites and Yoopers who turn Nashville bars into alcohol wastelands whenever NFC North teams travel to play the Tennessee Titans. This makes him the NoBro of SoBros. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Check out more of his musings at his blog, Millennial on Maple Street.
