Let’s do some hypothetical bullshit journalism today because it’s June and there’s barely fuck else to talk about. Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is entering a contract year. He was also the hottest running back in the NFL over the course of the last four weeks of the 2018 season.
His raw number of carries and his rushing yards have gone up every year – 490 yards in 2016, 744 in 2017, and 1,059 in 2018. That 2018 figure put him at 7th in the league on the season, despite rushing for just 474 yards through the first 12 games. His 12 touchdowns were third, only behind Todd Gurley’s 17 and Alvin Kamara’s 14.
It’s wild to look back at how his season started in contrast to how it ended. It’s almost as if you’re looking at two completely different players. Now that he’s heading into the last year of his rookie deal, that makes him an interesting player to watch in 2019. So, which one are you going to get? The Titans will have a decision to make come spring of 2020.
And, I anticipate that Henry’s status won’t be addressed until the spring of 2020. So, let me get that out of the way. Again, it’s June. What the fuck else am I going to write about right now? I don’t have sources. Jim Wyatt and Paul Kuharsky can tell you about OTAs. I’m just here for opinions and hypotheticals.
The question of whether or not the Titans should consider re-signing Henry in 2019 popped up last Friday on 104.5 The Zone’s 3HL. In my opinion (what I’m here for, remember?), that’s a pretty interesting question to ask – one I hadn’t even thought of until then. For a degenerate gambling mind like mine, it’s fun to explore the risk-reward.
The Titans currently have close to $30M in cap space to play with. Now, for the sake of this discussion, we have to take the other impending free agents out of the equation. I mean, Marcus Mariota is a much more important cap space hit to discuss. It’s possible the Titans lose out on Derrick Henry just by virtue of paying other guys. So, with that in mind, let’s dive into the potential scenarios.
If the Titans sign Derrick Henry now…
So, he finished 2018 among the top seven running backs in rushing yards and top three in touchdowns. The average cap hit of the top seven running backs in the league is around $10.29M per year. Right now, Henry’s making about $1.3M/year.
If you sign him to a $7-8M/year type of deal now, you’re essentially paying him for that #7 ranking in 2018. That’s also putting him in the 4th-7th highest paid range among the position. The bet would be that you’d get him locked in in 2019, and he’d continue the hot streak from the end of 2018 and end up as one of the top three backs in the league. Is Henry going to be in the Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson class? Well, based on the three years of production we’ve seen, I wouldn’t say so.
So, the odds of that happening seem pretty slim, and that’s the only real benefit of signing him so early that I can see. You’d theoretically get an elite player at his position for a discount (the obvious problem being that we don’t know for sure he’s going to be elite).
You sign him now, and he does become the next Gurley, you’re golden. But, if you sign him now and he backtracks, then you’re locked into a top seven salary for a top 20 player. The risk just doesn’t seem worth the reward.
If the Titans wait…
The risk in waiting lies in getting another year of elite production and losing out on the player because of the cost (when the price was much lower the season before). Let’s say he does have a top three season in 2019. Then, he’s probably going to want top three money, and some team will probably pay for it. If the Titans end up being that team, it could cost them quite a bit more than if they signed him now for a lower rate.
On the other hand, they’d save themselves a big contract if they wait and he ends up with middling production. But, it all comes down to how likely it is that Henry continues to become one of the best backs in the NFL. That’s the bet.
Ultimately…
If I were to offer Derrick Henry a contract in 2019, I’d throw out an offer of $5-6M/year for four years and see what happens. But, I’d let a player walk before I’d allow myself to be locked into a bad contract. That’s the situation good GMs avoid. Ain’t nobody gonna pay him $10M/year right now. And again, there’s always the possibility that the Titans would pay Henry if he has an elite season. But, you’re essentially betting on what he will become instead of what he has been. To me, we don’t have a large enough sample size to effectively project Henry’s career trajectory from here. So, let’s just wait and see how 2019 goes.
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Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Alabama Crimson Tide football, the WWE, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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