A quarterback battle brewing between Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill? Not exactly. Media critics are expediting this narrative. Barring an injury or a catastrophic preseason, Mariota will start Week 1. The true storyline involves whether Mariota plays well enough to earn a major financial commitment and what that would mean for the Tennessee Titans.
Mariota faces the most important year of his financial career. The 2015 No. 2 pick prepares for a season where the difference between a few individual passes and team outcomes can mean the difference between a journeyman salary and breaking the bank. Season No. 5 is the ideal opportunity for the franchise to determine whether they’ll commit long term, change course, or designate a franchise tag that would continue these debates for another season.
What awaits Mariota following an unsuccessful season? Consider former divisional foe Blake Bortles. Bortles’ fifth season—2018—was an unmitigated disaster which saw him play a major role in the Jacksonville Jaguars regressing from AFC runner-up to AFC South basement. He was released. Where is he in 2019?
Now imagine Mariota has that breakthrough season. What is a potential financial ceiling? Consider Russell Wilson. This past offseason, the Seattle Seahawks quarterback agreed to a four-year, $140-million extension with $107 million guaranteed. Don’t forget the convenience of a no-trade clause. Former No. 2 pick Carson Wentz has already agreed to an extension that is worth $128 million. This includes $107.9 million in guarantees.
Quarterback money is no joke. Each year sees quarterbacks who aren’t even top five at their positions agree to record deals. Wentz made his money despite not finishing his last two seasons. If Mariota can remain healthy for one entire season, then durability won’t outweigh strong performance during contract discussions.
Marcus Mariota has gone through a revolving door of significant personnel changes. Five play-callers, four offensive coordinators, three head coaches, two general managers, and a partridge in a pear tree. In 2019, a headline change includes rookie offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Smith takes over after former offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur accepted the Green Bay Packers’ head coaching job.
Some Mariota defenders insist that the aforementioned instability has hindered his progression. No argument about that. Here’s the problem: with a head coach featuring a defensive background, Mariota must always adjust to incoming and outgoing play-callers and/or offensive coordinators. The only way to prevent that is if general manager Jon Robinson elects to promote a successful offensive coordinator to head coach. This means firing Mike Vrabel after a successful season. That’s what the Cleveland Browns did when they promoted offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens instead of keeping interim head coach Gregg Williams. Consider the 2016 Atlanta Falcons coming off Matt Ryan’s MVP season. What would’ve happened if they promoted then-offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and fired Dan Quinn?
Season No. 5 is crucial. Nobody should understand that more than fans who’ve supported the organization since the era of Steve McNair. McNair was the 1995 No. 3 pick of the then-Houston Oilers. TitansOnline writer Jim Wyatt compared the first four seasons of McNair, Mariota, and Vince Young. Mariota has far superior numbers. The Titans have had winning seasons in three out of Mariota’s four seasons. McNair didn’t have his first playoff appearance or winning season until his fifth season—that 1999 AFC championship campaign. McNair went on to become a co-MVP who led multiple playoff appearances.
Does Marcus Mariota provide enough production in an era when the NFL favors offenses more than ever before? In 1999, five quarterbacks passed for more than 4,000 yards. Steve Beuerlein led the league with 4,436 yards. In 2018, 12 quarterbacks passed for more than 4,000 yards (Drew Brees passed for 3,992). Two eclipsed 5,000 yards. Please note that yards-per-completion actually appears a bit higher during 1999. Among qualifying 2018 quarterbacks (Pro Football Reference), Mariota’s 11.1 YPC ranked No. 21. In 1999, that would’ve been tied-27th. Increased passing yardage is mostly a matter of teams passing the ball more. The Titans are one of the few teams who haven’t followed that trend.
Those late-90s and early-00s teams have similarities with the 2019 unit. They featured head coaches with defensive philosophies, bruiser running backs, strong defenses, trusty tight ends, questions at wide receiver, and quarterbacks who, while they rarely had dazzling stat-lines, were capable of winning games during the fourth quarter. They played complementary football. They’re capable of winning at multiple styles. They’re the opposite of teams who allow one injury to turn them from 13-3 to 3-13.
No quarterback controversy exists. Not yet. If Mariota gets injured and Tannehill plays well against opposing starters? Make no mistake that Tannehill faces a great opportunity. Never has he had such a supporting cast. His Miami Dolphins teams included a revolving door at running back, wide receivers who were either injured or didn’t match his skill-set, and a leaky defense with a severe inability to defend the run. Tannehill never had the luxury of a Delanie Walker. If September presents a sluggish Mariota, then he’ll need to look over his shoulder.
Give Mariota a little more patience. He has displayed enough positives to earn a final review. But for the Titans to reach that next height, their quarterback play must complement their defense and ground game. Mariota must improve his durability. Part of that involves reducing his sack totals. Can’t follow signature wins with letdown performances. His wide receivers must quit living down to their meme as wide droppers (e.g. Nick Williams). Mariota doesn’t need to throw 600 times; he just needs to eliminate mistakes, convert red-zone opportunities, and have enough of a downfield passing attack to keep defenses honest. Succeed with more consistency.
One random point: former general manager Ruston Webster drafted Mariota. Robinson played a role when the Buccaneers drafted Jameis Winston as the 2015 No. 1 pick. So it’s fair to wonder about his allegiance.
The honeymoon is over. Marcus Mariota will either TitanUp or TitanOut.
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Joshua Huffman was born and edumacated in Middle Tennessee. He has published content for Yahoo! Sports (via Contributor Network) and Titan Sized, among other venues. At SoBros, he’ll provide Daily Fantasy Sports suggestions and broad sports coverage. Follow him on Twitter (although I rarely use it).
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