The LSU Tigers sure as hell look like a team of destiny after defeating their 4th top 10 team of the season on Saturday. Their opponent, the Alabama Crimson Tide, has a little bit of soul-searching to do after losing the ‘Game of the Century’, but overall, the season’s far from over for Nick Saban and his squad.
Can you lose a game in a good way? I mean, the Tide lost the game in the best way possible, right?! After coming back from an ankle injury, Tua Tagovailoa took a little while to really get going. Once he did, it was off to the races. It was a shootout that the Tigers ultimately won 46-41, but is it fair to think doubt about Tagovailoa’s health could leave room for the committee to say, “well, what would’ve happened if he wasn’t so rusty at the start?” Or, what about the ‘best four teams’ argument? The Tide didn’t do too much to prove that they AREN’T one of the four best teams in the country, even in the loss.
I’m just playing devil’s advocate here. Personally, I think it’s going to be rather difficult for the Tide to climb back into the hunt without some help. So, what’ll make things easier for ’em?
Alabama’s Path the CFP
Win out – Well, this one’s pretty obvious – none of what follows would even matter if the Tide loses another game this season. They absolutely HAVE to finish 11-1 if they want another crack at a National Championship.
LSU wins out – It keeps that one loss looking strong, but it also keeps Georgia out of the playoff. If the Bulldogs were to win out, that’s really going to muddy the waters. Then, you’re potentially talking about LSU vs. ‘Bama for that 4th playoff spot, and folks – ‘Bama ain’t gonna win that one. So, let’s just get Georgia out of the way altogether.
Ohio State wins out – the Big Ten is going to get one of the spots, but it makes things easier for Alabama if the Buckeyes just handle their business and eliminate competition in Penn State and Minnesota.
Clemson loses – I do think the Clemson Tigers are going to run the table and lock up a playoff spot, but as I mentioned above, this is about eliminating competition. If the Tigers lose, with that schedule, they’re out. So, that’s one less team to talk about.
Utah wins the Pac-12 – An awful lot of people seem to think that even if Oregon wins out and claims the Pac-12, they still won’t get in over a one-loss Alabama team. I don’t know about that. If LSU is ranked at #1 and Clemson is undefeated (thus taking the #3 seed against #2 Ohio State), the committee may factor in the repeated match-up. Would they say, “hey, we’ve already seen LSU beat ‘Bama – Oregon is the team,” or not? One way to insure that question isn’t posed is for the Utes to win the Pac-12. They damn sure aren’t getting in over Alabama with that loss to USC. The other option is, of course, if both Pac-12 teams lose another game, but looking at their schedules, I don’t see that happening.
Baylor and Oklahoma split – I think the Big 12 is a long shot to make the playoffs to begin with. Maybe a one-loss Oklahoma team makes it a conversation. Maybe an undefeated Baylor sneaks in. I think they’re both awfully far down the list to make a run now, but it would make things easier for Alabama if they split between their game this weekend and the Big 12 Championship.
At this point in the season, I’d be willing to bet we already have three playoff spots locked up: the SEC Champion, the Big Ten Champion, and Clemson. That 4th spot is going to bring forth quite the discussion.
If I’m looking into my crystal ball, I think the conversation ultimately comes down to Alabama vs. Oregon. The Tide’s the better team per the eye test, but the Ducks would have a conference championship. And, I wonder how the potential rematch with LSU would weigh for the committee.
All things considered, the old rival, the Auburn Tigers, could prove to be the biggest obstacle remaining for the Tide this season. But, their chances are decent as long as they win out.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD and #BeBetter. “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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