Super Bowl 56 Betting Guide

Stoney Keeley provides his Super Bowl 56 Betting Guide.

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Alright, alright, alright – it’s the final football game of the season. Another fine year of watching games, drinking beer, and throwing money away is officially coming to an end. So, as is per tradition, I’m going to throw out a few of my favorite bets heading into the big game – this is my Super Bowl 56 Betting Guide. Proceed with caution.

Super Bowl 56 Betting Guide

The spread: The match-ups swing overwhelmingly in favor of the Rams. On several levels, Rams -4 looks like a lot safer of a bet than Bengals +4.
The point total: 48.5 seems like easy money on the over when you look at these two offenses, right? RIGHT?!?! The only way I see the under hitting on this one is if this game is a blowout from the jump and the Rams win 42-6.
Joe Burrow O1.5 TD passes @ -154 – I don’t mean to sound so pessimistic about the Rams, but I think a little Burrow magic is their best chance at winning this game. He has four touchdowns this postseason, but if they’re going to win this game, it’s going to be on his shoulders. I expect a high volume of throws from Burrow.
Joe Mixon, U60.5 rushing yards @ -105 – After a stellar 2021 campaign, Mixon is averaging just 63.3 yards per game in the postseason. Though he had 88 yards against the Chiefs, he posted just 54 against the Titans and their stout defensive front, and 48 against the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Rams have held opposing rushers to 61.3 yards per game this postseason. It’s not an easy defense to run on, much less when you have an offensive line that gives up pressure the way the Bengals do. Mixon could be a factor, but I think it’s more likely his yardage comes receiving as the Bengals should adjust to this match-up by getting him in space and on the edges and throwing him the ball.
Van Jefferson O33.5 receiving yards @ -110 – This is the Super Bowl! This is when you open up the playbook and lay it all on the line. For me, this is about Jefferson’s explosive play potential. With the Bengals likely keying in on Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., it’s going to open things up for Jefferson. Here’s my hot take on this one – Jefferson is going to hit this over on one catch.
Tee Higgins O5.5 receptions @ +106 – Ja’Marr Chase is going to get a ton of attention from this Rams defense, and the one weakness that it does have is in the middle of the field. I expect the Bengals to attempt to attack that area of the field, and they happen to have a guy in Higgins who can be lethal on those in-breaking routes over the middle. With Chase getting a lot of attention, I expect Higgins to become a focal point of the passing game on Sunday.
Jessie Bates O5.5 tackles @ +125 – I like Bates a lot as one of the more perennially-underrated safeties in the NFL. He has a knack for being around the ball, and when you’re talking about facing a team with the volume of passes that the Rams have, it bodes well for a ballhawking safety that seems to always put himself around the play. He averaged 5.6 tackles per game against top 10 teams in pass attempts (regular and postseason combined), including five games with 8+ tackles.
Evan McPherson O7.5 points @ -144 – You’re going to sweat it out, but this kid is as automatic as they come, and he’s averaging 13.3 total points per game this postseason. You’re telling me the Bengals won’t get three field goals or two field goals and two XPs? I like the stone cold kicker.
I’m staying away with rushing yardage with the Rams because it sounds like all three backs will be healthy and McVay will run with the hot hand. It could be a timeshare, and/or one big play could break the overs. Too risky.
I also usually love 1st half unders, but these two offenses scare the shit out of me betting ANY under.
How many commercials will have dogs? U6.5 – According to Lines, “There have been a total of 21 commercials with dogs in it over the last three years. That would just slightly put us over the total.” I’m not buying it. I’m taking the under – advertisers want to do different, new, and fresh things. If dogs have been all the rage, I’m going to say marketers pivot and try to identify the next big trend.
The Halftime Show opens with “Still DRE” and closes with California Love” – Everyone is banking on “California Love” being the opening song of the Halftime Show, but I think that’s the big hit that everyone’s going to know that you close with. Meanwhile, “Still DRE” has one of the most iconic opening riffs of all time, perfect to kick off the performance.

Deep cuts

Rams D/ST ATD @ +600 – I love taking a flier on this one – Jalen Ramsey hasn’t been great in locking guys down this season, right? But, Burrow won’t hesitate to throw into a tight window, and if Ramsey gets the ball in his hands, he becomes a wide receiver. I like the odds on this one. The Bengals run those empty sets and try to get the ball out quickly. The Rams are good against the pass and can generate a rush so Burrow’s going to default to who he’s most comfortable with and lob it up to Chase. As far as long shots go, I think this one is awfully tempting.
Samaje Perine to be the leading rusher of the game – There’s a chance that the Rams go with the committee approach, so you could see a few different Rams rushers with 40-50 yards each. On defense, I expect the Rams to key in on Mixon and crowd the line of scrimmage when Burrow is under center and when the Bengals line up in a two-receiver set. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mixon wasn’t a factor in this game at all (see my under bet above). So, with all of that said, the Bengals have put Perine in in clear pass protection situations, and they love those screens to Perine to get him out into traffic. I can see a scenario in which they run a draw play or something that sees Perine take one yard and end up with the highest rushing total of the game in some fluke situation. Now, I only bring this up because the odds of him actually being the leading rusher in this game are set at +10000….so if I’m looking at miracle long shot bets for the Super Bowl, I’m looking for ones with a plausible path to fruition. There is a path to fruition for this bet, as crazy as it may sound.
Alternate spread – Rams -20.5 @ +500 – Call it a gut feeling, but when you really dig into this game, you see so many matches the favor the Rams, and so many things have to go right for the Bengals. When the game comes down to “well, the Bengals are going to have to get the performance of a lifetime out of the offensive line, and they’re going to have to slow down this Rams passing game,” you don’t feel too good about it. This line hasn’t moved a whole lot this week. With the Bengals being the hot hand right now, folks are going to be betting on Joe Brrrrrr. With the O/U set at what it is, this all feels like a trap. Vegas could be sensing a blowout coming on.
My cracked out parlay of the game is: ATD scores: Beckham, Rams D/ST, Boyd, and Chase, Van Jefferson O33.5 yards, Mixon U60.5 yards, Perine O2.5 yards. That would pay out $5,911.41 on a $10 bet according to FanDuel’s current odds. Let’s get weird. Fuck it.
My sane parlay of the game is: ATD scores: Beckham, Chase, Burrow alt passing yards 200+ yards, Stafford alt passing yards 300+ yards, Boyd O39.5 receiving yards. At +1765, that’s $176.51 on a $10 bet.

Also, I should remind you all that our lawyers say we shouldn’t claim to be experts on anything because we’re not and we’re not professionals here so take this advice with a grain of salt and don’t sue us if you piss all of your money away. That’s not our fault. Okay, I think we’re all set here.

Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley