Welcome all degenerate gamblers back into our weekly American football betting column here on the SoBros Network, Tank the 401k. Call your bookie and empty those retirement accounts (actually, don’t really do that – this is just sarcasm. Our lawyers say we shouldn’t claim to be experts on anything because we’re not)! Each week, the SoBros team up to offer their five locks of the week – obviously, we’re not professionals here so take this advice with a grain of salt and don’t sue us if you piss all of your money away. That’s not our fault. Okay, I think we’re all set here – here are this week’s SoBros gambling picks.
Folks, it is hard to believe that we’re already gearing up for another season of totally wasting our money (actually, I was 51% last season – that’s a win, baby!) here on Tank the 401k. My, how time flies. Nonetheless, as the summer dwindles to an end, it’s time to go ahead and fire up the weekly gambling column (that we might end up turning into a podcast, stay tuned) and look at some futures before the season starts. Today, I’m going to be opening up the ol’ gamblin’ notebook and jotting my thoughts down on the current win totals in the SEC.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook:
Alabama Crimson Tide: 10.5 – For the most part, I think the Tide is perfectly capable of steamrolling everyone on their schedule this season. They have a history of dropping a game early in the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them upset at Arkansas in October. But to pick ’em to lose twice this year? That’s risky business. I’d take the over – it won’t be a valuable bet, but it’s probably safe money to not bet on ‘Bama losing twice.
Arkansas Razorbacks: 7.5 – I’m smashing the over on this one – between the job Sam Pittman has done in turning the culture around in Arkansas, the two guys he has coordinating his offense and defense, and KJ Jefferson at quarterback, I like the Razorbacks as a 10-win team this season.
Auburn Tigers: 6.5 – I’m not buying the Auburn hype. This looks like a one-dimensional team that is going to hand the ball off to Tank Bigsby and gtfo of the way. The Tigers are going to need to be a little more dynamic to hang with the SEC West on the scoreboard. This could be a steady 6-6 bowl team, but I wouldn’t be surprised at a 4-8 season either. It’s under for me.
Florida Gators: 7 – I’m not buying the Anthony Richardson hype either, and I think it’s going to take some time for Billy Napier to institute his own version of “The Process” and rebuild. I’m not sure this team doesn’t start the season 1-3, and then, they’d have to go 8-1 to hit this over. I’m thinking 5-7 in Year 1 of the Napier era.
Georgia Bulldogs: 10.5 – I have a confession to make….I have my doubts about the Bulldogs this season. Everyone is banking on another Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship, but with Oregon on the schedule, and trips to South Carolina, to Kentucky, and to Mississippi State on this year’s schedule, I think it’s entirely possible that Georgia could be a surprising 10-2. That’s not even counting the home game against Tennessee in a season when the Vols look primed to be able to score some serious points on everyone. I’m just saying – I think there’s value in the under here.
Kentucky Wildcats: 8 – I hate this number because Kentucky could finish 8-4 and still clearly be one of the four best teams in the SEC. If the Wildcats clear that Week 2 trip to Florida and start the season 2-0, watch out. This could be a dark horse playoff contender – yes, I’m going that far. I could see this team going 11-1. I could also see them going 8-4. Odds would say the over is much more likely with that philosophy in mind.
LSU Tigers: 7 – How quickly can Brian Kelly get this Tigers team to jell? That’s the question. If it’s sooner rather than later, then this should be an easy over. If it takes some time, who knows? There are six games on the schedule that should be wins for the Tigers – where do the other two come from? I’m leaning “stay away from this one” because I think 7-5 is a likely possibility. But, with all the talent that this roster is loaded with, I ain’t gonna be mad at ya if you take this over.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 6.5 – An easy over for me – I’m high on the Bulldogs this year with another year with Mike Leach under their belt, they have Will Rogers at quarterback, who is going to throw for a million yards this season, and they’re returning a solid defensive front that made for a surprisingly good run defense in 2021. The frustrating thing is the consistency here, and their schedule is brutal, but this should comfortably and easily be a 7-win football team at the least.
Missouri Tigers: 5.5 – I’m not as low on the Tigers as most of the media is. This bet is, to me, going to come down to whether or not the Tigers could win road games at Kansas State and Auburn. They’re capable of doing that, and I think they could finish as high as 4th in the SEC East. That said…that’s a ceiling to me, and I’m much more comfortable betting the floor, which is 4-8 or 5-7. Take that under.
Ole Miss Rebels: 7.5 – I’m not as high on the Rebs as my good friend Steven McCash, and the rest of the national media for that matter, is. There’s a ton of talent there, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ole Miss start the season on a 6-1 rampage (I don’t think they’re beating Kentucky, and have already made one bet with McCash over this game – loser buys Whataburger). But, their last five games – at LSU, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, and vs. Mississippi State screams 6-6 to me. It’s an easy under.
South Carolina Gamecocks: 6 – This should be an exciting offense to watch, and Shane Beamer has the program headed in the right direction, for sure. But, the hype is getting out of control. While they may be able to pull off a major upset this year, I’d have to count on that in order to feel comfortable betting this over….and I don’t. I think it’s 6-6 and a push for this one.
Tennessee Volunteers: 7.5 – I’m so hot and cold with this year’s Vols team. Some mornings, I wake up and think this is a 10-win football team. Others, it’s 7-5 and we’re overhyping ’em. I like Hendon Hooker, and I like this offense. But, people are losing sight of how far this team has to go on defense before I think they’re a more well-rounded championship contender. I’m leaning “stay away from this one,” but if you’re putting a gun to my head, I’d say “over.”
Texas A&M Aggies: 8.5 – Have we learned nothing, folks? Do we really NOT think the Aggies are a lock to lose a series of games they shouldn’t in October and November and end the season 8-4? I’m taking the under.
Vanderbilt Commodores: 2.5 – It’s the over….c’mon, guys! Don’t do this to Vandy – they can at least beat Hawaii, Elon, and Northern Illinois, right? RIGHT?!?! Fuck it – I’m taking the over. Let’s ride.
Our friends at 440 Sports just cut a hell of an episode of The Fringe Element, on which Braden and Erin offer up their thoughts on the current win totals for each SEC team – check out that episode here:
If you haven’t already, introduce yourself to 440 Sports – Nashville’s independent, on demand, and uncensored audio network. With shows covering the Tennessee Titans, SEC football, and much more, subscribe on YouTube so you don’t miss a beat! And, be sure to check out our friends at Trouble Spirits – form your own Rat Pack with Trouble’s small-batch rye whiskey, hand-crafted gin, and premium vodka.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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