Welcome to a Titans at Bills gambling preview via SoBros Network. This will focus on the 2022 NFL Week 2 matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills. Every week, SoBros Network contributor Joshua Huffman will provide a weekly betting and daily fantasy sports (DFS) guide on Titans games.
Titans at Bills: Week 2 Spread & DFS Gambling Preview (2022)
Introduction
The Bills (1-0) entered 2022 as the favorite to come out of the AFC as the Super Bowl representative. They started the season with a dominant 31-10 Thursday Night Football road win against the defending champion Los Angeles Rams. Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed 26-of-31 for 297 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense forced Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford into three interceptions and sacked him seven times. Bills rookie offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey showed more of an emphasis to use his running backs. Bills running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined for 14 carries for 63 yards and eight receptions for 35 yards.
The Titans (0-1) continued their trend of underperforming against inferior opponents when they lost 21-20 to the New York Giants. After the Titans took a 13-0 lead into halftime, the defense allowed big plays to Giants running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Sterling Shepard. The Giants had 238 rushing yards with Barkley having 194 all-purpose yards (164 rushing, 30 receiving). Nine Titans receivers accounted for 20 receptions. Titans defensive players Rashad Weaver and Jeffery Simmons both had two sacks.
These teams last played on October 18, 2021. The Titans hosted the Bills in a 34-31 Monday Night Football victory. Titans running back Derrick Henry had 20 carries for 143 yards including a 76 yard touchdown scamper. Josh Allen completed 35-of-47 for 353 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. The Bills had three receivers with at least 88 receiving yards.
Early Lines (as of September 14, via FanDuel)
DFS prices (Key Players, DraftKings)
Titans
- RB Derrick Henry ($8,300)
- QB Ryan Tannehill ($5,500)
- RB Dontrell Hilliard ($4,800)
- WR Robert Woods ($4,700)
- WR Treylon Burks ($4,600)
- WR Kyle Philips ($3,900)
- TE Austin Hooper ($3,300)
- TE Geoff Swaim ($2,900)
- De Titans ($2,200)
Bills
- QB Josh Allen ($7,900)
- WR Stefon Diggs ($7,700)
- WR Gabe Davis ($6,200)
- RB Devin Singletary ($5,500)
- WR Isaiah McKenzie ($4,400)
- RB Zack Moss ($4,400)
- WR Jamison Crowder ($4,200)
- TE Dawson Knox ($3,800)
- De Bills ($3,100)
Key Injuries (NFL.com)
The Titans Will Win / Cover If…
Henry has another monster performance that allows Tennessee to control the clock throughout the second half. Last year, Henry averaged nearly 7.5 yards per carry against Buffalo’s defense. It’s hard to see a repeat of that because Tennessee lost both of their starting wide receivers from last season (A.J. Brown, Julio Jones). Additionally, the Bills added defensive lineman DaQuan Jones to help their run defense.
For as great as Buffalo looked in their Week 1 opener, they had three first half turnovers that let Los Angeles enter halftime with a 10-10 tie. Tennessee must create takeaways while limiting the big plays that reignited a Giants offense that appeared lifeless after falling behind 13-0.
The Bills Will Win / Cover If…
Win the line of scrimmage. Buffalo can’t let Henry run for another 150 rushing yards. Von Miller can exploit some of the deficiencies along Tennessee’s offensive line including right offensive tackle. If the Bills can pressure Tannehill, then it’ll make it even harder for a Titans offense whose main receiving weapons are rookies and free agents (WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper) who are still developing chemistry with their quarterback.
The more this game becomes a shootout, the more it favors Buffalo. Allen, Diggs, and the rest of Buffalo’s offense will test a very young Titans defense that got burned on a couple of Week 1 miscues.
Titans at Bills: Best Bet, DFS Picks:
Titans +9.5 (Wait to see if it goes up to +10 or +10.5)
Let me start with a quote from my Week 1 preview:
The Titans are the type of team that will take out the PAW Patrol but lose to the Kitten Catastrophe Crew. In 2021, Tennessee lost games when they were medium to heavy favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Houston Texans, and the Cincinnati Bengals. Yet, the Titans pulled off big wins against the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and the Indianapolis Colts twice. This trend has gone on for decades.
Joshua Huffman, Giants at Titans: Week 1 Spread & DFS Gambling Preview (2022)
The worst way to bet this matchup is to use the logical fallacy, “If a beats b, then there’s no way b can beat c because c is much better than a.” The Titans losing to a potential NFC East cellar dweller has no bearing on how they’ll fare against a Super Bowl favorite. Tennessee seems to thrive on the national media attention that they receive when they beat high quality opponents.
The Wednesday line was Bills -9.5 (-114). The -114 indicates that the -9.5 line could move up to -10. Either way for the extra insurance to cover the touchdown + field goal OR look into buying a point before kickoff (+10.5).
Derrick Henry or Dontrell Hilliard
No explanation needed here. Keep in mind that No. 2 running back Dontrell Hilliard had two receiving touchdowns. Hilliard is a bit of a vulture as Tennessee adjusts to losing Brown and Jones. Hilliard should keep getting looks in the passing game. If you believe that Buffalo gets out to a big lead, then Hilliard would get a lot of dump offs.
Competitive game or Titans blowout equals Henry but Bills blowout equals Hilliard.
Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs
There’s no reason to go away from what worked a season ago. The Titans have a very young defensive backfield that demonstrated growing pains when it allowed Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard to score on a barely contested 65-yard touchdown. Allen has a great shot to win his first MVP award.
Titans at Bills: Final Thoughts
I’ve seen this story unfold too many times to believe that this game will go over +9.5. At the very least, the Titans will play competitive football for four quarters. It’s gotten to the point where I have more faith in them beating the Buffalo Bills than the Buffalo Bulls. Okay, that’s an over-exaggeration but you get the point. The Titans will show up as an underdog in a prime-time matchup and give Buffalo everything they can handle.
