Time flies. It seems like only yesterday, I was quietly whispering to my friends that I thought it was possible for the Indianapolis Colts to finish 4th in the AFC South because everyone was picking them to win the division and I felt like I was being crazy. Now, here we are on the Monday after Super Bowl XLII, the Kansas City Chiefs are champions, Patrick Mahomes is the MVP of the league and its championship game, and we’re facing about seven months without the thrill of a football Sunday. Where does the time go?
Nonetheless, it’s a time-honored tradition here around SoBros Network to own up to our preseason predictions. There’s no real accountability when you’re putting opinions on the internet unless you put that on yourself. I always want to be open and transparent with you guys, hence this piece every February. Plus, it’s just plain fun to look back at all of the hilariously disastrous takes I had back in August. So, let’s dig in, and we’ll start with what I got right because it’s much less fun.
Things I Got Right
I think about the only thing I can hang my hat on this season, from a prognostication standpoint anyway, is that I didn’t lose faith in the Kansas City Chiefs. They were my pick to win the AFC West, and go on to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. What I wrote in August: “People are calling for a regression from the Chiefs, but they still have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. And, I think we’re really going to see the value of what Andy Reid provides as the head coach this season. It’s about experience and consistency to me, and the Chiefs still have that above everyone else in the AFC West.” The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and I think that’s a pretty good get to get right.
I did have the Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East, but let’s be real here…everyone and their mama had the Bills winning the Super Bowl. So, winning the division wasn’t that far out of the question. It wasn’t exactly like I went out on a limb there. What did feel a little more risky was me saying the Philadelphia Eagles would win the NFC East. Throw in the aforementioned Chiefs, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I ended up getting four of the eight division winners right.
I felt like I was going against the grain on the Indianapolis Colts hype, but I never really saw the vision behind picking them as dark horse Super Bowl contenders. I had ’em at 3rd in the AFC South, which is where they landed. But, I had private DMs with people saying “I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished last in this division,” that I simply did not have the balls to say publicly. Maybe I should have! Hell, I was pretty close.
I’ve been super high on Brian Daboll for awhile now – I wasn’t ready to pull the trigger on the playoff prediction, but I did think that they were a team that could make things interesting in the NFC wild card race. All in all, I picked four of the seven playoff teams in the AFC right (missing on Denver, Las Vegas, and Tennessee), and four of the seven playoff teams in the NFC right as well (missing on Los Angeles, New Orleans, and Green Bay).
Things I Got Wrong
Oh boy…here we go. So….I predicted that the Green Bay Packers would win the Super Bowl and that Aaron Rodgers would be the league MVP. There – I said it. Huge swing and a miss. I thought they were one of the more consistent franchises in the league over the last several seasons, and that this would be the year they put it together. Oops.
I also said that all four AFC West teams would be in the playoffs. That’s my bad – I bit on all the preseason hype. At least give me a break with the Denver Broncos, though. No one saw that Russell Wilson regression coming. I’ll eat shit on the Raiders prediction, but don’t we all get a pass for the Broncos this year? I did have Andy Reid listed as the ‘Coach of the Year’, and I don’t want to count this is as a loss, because Reid is the ‘Coach of the Year’ in my humble opinion. But, I guess I do have to technically count it.
I had the Cincinnati Bengals at third in the AFC North behind the Ravens and the Steelers. I thought I was going to be proven a genius in the first quarter of the season before the Bengals turned it on and proceeded to become one of the best four teams in the league. My pick for the worst team in the league? The Seattle Seahawks. I did write off Geno Smith. And, he did not write me back.
Probably my biggest hill I was willing to die on last summer was that the Houston Texans would be much more competitive than they actually were. I was high on Davis Mills and his pairing with Pep Hamilton. I figured Lovie Smith would be a stabilizing force on defense, and their 2022 draft class looked like hit after hit after hit. Factoring in that they were scrappier than they had any business being in 2021, and I figured they would be a surprise success in 2022. And, hell…maybe they would’ve been had the first few games gone differently. They started the season 1-3-1, but all of those games were competitive. They should’ve beaten the Colts, Broncos, and Bears, and they showed some fight against the Chargers. If they start the season 4-1, who knows what could’ve happened? Instead, they start 1-3-1, and then go on to lose nine straight. A lot of things went wrong, but ultimately, Smith wasted an opportunity to have a competitive season in what ended up being a down year for the AFC South.
My ‘Defensive Rookie of the Year’ pick of Roger McCreary looked insane at the time, and while he definitely hit a rookie wall and Sauce Gardner played way better than I thought he would, McCreary still led the NFL in defensive snaps. Take a wild guess who was actually not surprised by that! Me. That’s right – me.
Enjoy the offseason, folks – we’ll be back here in August to look into our crystal ball and try to call the 2023 season before it happens.
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley.
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