How the Colts and Texans Could Surprise the AFC South in 2023

The AFC South could be an interesting division to watch in 2023.

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Most of the football world thinks the AFC South is the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ division to lose. It’s hard to blame them, to be honest. Given how the Tennessee Titans lost seven games in a row, falling off of a cliff to finish 2022, and given how the final records looked for the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The national conscience seems to remember that massive comeback the Jags led against the Los Angeles Chargers in the playoffs. They see the former first overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence starting to put it together. They see the stabilizing force that Doug Pederson was after a year of the circus with Urban Meyer. With all these things fresh on our minds, it’s hard not to think the arrow is trending up for the Jags.

This isn’t to take away from the season they had. That was fantastic – good for them. But, they were pretty lucky in how healthy they were able to stay down the stretch. I’m not as sold on Lawrence as an elite quarterback just yet. He could get to that point, sure…but it feels like we’re overreacting a bit as we start to put him among the top 5-10 quarterbacks in the league. And, I didn’t really love their draft. I’ll be interested to see if they can keep that upward trajectory or if that run was just the byproduct of some things really clicking for them.

The Titans aren’t going away any time soon either. I know nationally, and even locally, there’s a strong contingency of people who believe this team is bottoming out. But, I just don’t see that. Mike Vrabel and his staff are so good at motivating players and devising game plans, and the team plays with such fight week in and week out, that the team is going to be competitive most weeks regardless of how banged up it is. With another season of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry at the helm, and with some tweaking of the offensive line, this is a team that should still be considered in the hunt. But, maybe this isn’t just a two-horse race. Maybe we’re collectively being too quick to write off the Colts and Texans.

If you start talking about a range of scenarios for the AFC South, and looking at teams in terms of who needs the most to happen in order to be successful, I don’t think there’s as much going against the Colts and Texans as it appears on the surface. When we talk about the x-factors that each of these teams has, let’s do so under the premise that the Jags will come back down to Earth a bit, and the Titans will struggle to find their footing in a continued tailspin. If both of those things happen, and the sparks ignite for the Colts and Texans, it could be a much more competitive division than we’re thinking right not.

For the Colts, it’s easy to say that Anthony Richardson is the x-factor, and that’s true to a certain extent. But, really, it’s this year’s draft class as a whole. Josh Downs could not have landed in a better spot in terms of fit and what he’ll be asked to do. Adetomiwa Adebawore is going to be a disruptor for an already stout defensive front. Julius Brents and Darius Rush were two of my favorite zone corners in this year’s class. Evan Hull gives them a utility back to go along with Jonathan Taylor. I wasn’t the biggest Blake Freeland fan, but he has the potential to be a contributor along the offensive line. And, it’s not just that they drafted Richardson. It’s that he’s going to play for a head coach who contributed to turning Jalen Hurts into a star. If this thing jells sooner rather than later, the Colts could be a surprise.

Last year, I called the Texans dark horse playoff contenders. They were a scrappy team in 2021 that seemed poised to take the next step and that 2022 draft class was loaded: Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, Kenyon Green, John Metchie III, Christian Harris, Dameon Pierce. It was one of my favorite drafts of 2022. What happened in 2022? Well, Davis Mills didn’t take the next step and Lovie Smith coached this defense like it was 2005. They’ve corrected course by drafting CJ Stroud, and with DeMeco Ryans in as the new head coach, one would think they’re better suited on both of those fronts. I wasn’t as big of a fan of this 2023 class, but that 2022 class is still there. There are definitely question marks, but if Ryans is able to harness the talent they have on defense, they could be ready ahead of schedule. He is that x-factor to me.

The AFC South could be an interesting division to watch in 2023. I’m not saying any of these teams should be considered among the Super Bowl contenders, but the pack might be closer than the national pundits are suggesting right now.

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Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley.

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