Welcome all degenerate gamblers back into our weekly American football betting column here on the SoBros Network, Tank the 401k. Call your bookie and empty those retirement accounts (actually, don’t really do that – this is just sarcasm. Our lawyers say we shouldn’t claim to be experts on anything because we’re not)! Each week, the SoBros team up to offer their five locks of the week – obviously, we’re not professionals here so take this advice with a grain of salt and don’t sue us if you piss all of your money away. That’s not our fault. Okay, I think we’re all set here – here are this week’s SoBros gambling picks.
If you didn’t get the memo that I never sent out and actually probably only made in my head without telling anyone, even Steven McCash who contributes to this series, Tank the 401k will be moving to a Patreon exclusive in 2023. That’s just a way of giving you guys a little more value here since this column has really only been read by the SoBros diehards since its inception all the way back in 2013. So, let’s get to it – the first column of the season…we’re talkin’ AFC division futures!
Tank the 401k: 2023 AFC Division Futures
AFC East: Miami Dolphins @ +290 – The AFC East looks like it could end up being the best division in football, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see three legitimate Super Bowl contenders emerge from the bunch. Ultimately, I’m going with the Dolphins as a bit of a roll of the dice to shake things up a bit. The Buffalo offense seemed a little clunky down the stretch in 2022, and I think there’s more than meets the eye there. I’m not ready to jump on the Jets bandwagon, because I’m still concerned about whether or not Aaron Rodgers is washed after watching last season. The Patriots will be tough, but they’re so out-matched from a talent perspective that I can’t imagine they’ll finish better than 4th in the division. Meanwhile, I love what Mike McDaniel is cooking up. I love the additions they made. That offense, if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, is going to be a juggernaut. So much hinges upon his health that it makes this a super risky bet, but I’m going to ride with the guy for now. Roll Tide.
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals @ +130 – The AFC North is the most unpredictable division in the conference, in my opinion. I still trust the Burrow to Chase connection when it matters down the stretch in December. I don’t know what to make of the Ravens. I love the additions they’ve made on offense, and with Lamar Jackson back, they’ll have a say in the division race. But, I’ll have to see that offense get back to 2019 before I trust that it can hang with the Bengals. The Steelers and Browns could surprise, but I’m sticking with the team that plays its best football late in the season.
AFC South: Tennessee Titans @ +380 – At +380, this is the biggest swing I’m taking in the AFC as we sit here in July. This division is still wide open – the Jags are among the most heavily favored teams in any division, but I don’t quite agree with the hype. They have some talent, for sure. But, they had a tad bit of luck going for them in 2022. It took a massive collapse from the Titans, who were hamstrung by injuries, atrocious offensive line play, and shaky quarterbacking when Ryan Tannehill was out with injuries. And, it still took a Week 18 win-and-in performance off of a controversial call for them to win the AFC South. People are enamored by the comeback against the Chargers, but I still like the Titans DNA with Tannehill and Henry back for 2023, an offensive line that could still be the 32nd ranked in the league and be better than a season ago, and the competitive DNA that Mike Vrabel instills in his team along with his and his staff’s ability to game plan. We’re pivoting too hard towards the Jags and away from the Titans this summer, in my opinion. Hot take: watch out for those Colts, though.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs @ -165 – It’s not the most tantalizing value, but I’m not buying the Chargers hype this season. The Broncos will be better, but I don’t think they’ll be good enough to wrestle the AFC West away from the Chiefs. And, the Raiders will be awful. As long as Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce are standing, I have a hard time buying in on any other team in this division.
Parlay all four, bet placed at +6815
I’ll be keeping track of Tank the 401k this year by putting my money where my mouth is…a dollar on every bet I list. This will be a running total calculated below. Hope I can financially survive the season.
McCash’s picks
AFC WEST
The AFC West could very well be the most competitive division from top-to-bottom in the NFL this season. The Chiefs are the Chiefs and are not going any where any time soon. The Denver Broncos, who have a sure fire Hall of Fame quarterback at the helm now have a no doubt Hall of Fame caliber coach in Sean Payton, will have a bounce back year and make things difficult for Mahomes and company.
The Los Angeles Chargers will find themselves in a battle with Denver for the right to take the throne from Kansas City while the Las Vegas Raiders will hold the bottom spot in the West despite finishing with a winning record.
The moves that Broncos, Chargers and Raiders have made in the offseason could easily land one or two of them in the playoffs this year but as long as Andy Reid and #15 are together I cannot pick against them. WINNER- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
AFC NORTH
The AFC North is not packing the same punch that it has in years past. The Pittsburgh Steelers were the face of the division for what seemed like an eternity but that time has passed for the time being as they search for their long-term answer at quarterback. For most of the offseason the Baltimore Ravens were in a wait-and-see game with their franchise signal caller. Luckily for fans in the DMV former league MVP Lamar Jackson re-signed with the team.
The perennial bottom feeder of the division, the Cleveland Browns, have been searching for a true franchise quarterback for longer than their entire roster has been alive and they backed up the Brink’s truck to disgraced quarterback Deshaun Watson for an astronomical amount of guaranteed money hoping to for once and for all have the answer to Bernie Kosar.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland will find out by mid-season that they both are still looking for a play caller and will be jockeying for a better draft position while the Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals fight for first place.
The Bengals had a very good draft this April and did an outstanding job replacing Jessie Bates III, Von Bell, Tre Flowers, and Hayden Hurst. Adding Orlando Brown, JR., Irv Smith, Jr., and Sidney Jones IV along with their stellar draft class make them the top pick to repeat as AFC North champions. WINNER- CINCINNATI BENGALS
AFC EAST
The AFC East is easily the hardest division in the conference to handicap. The Buffalo Bills come in to the season looking to claim a fourth in a row championship banner. The first two of the three were claimed rather easily but last year saw the Miami Dolphins make things a little difficult for the upstate New York team. The 2023 season proves to be an exciting one in the AFC East as the Dolphins will challenge the Bills again but the New York Jets have to be taken seriously as well with the addition of future first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Fans will get an early idea of how the division will go as the Bills and Jets face off in New York on Monday Night Football to start the season. Whoever comes out ahead of that matchup will hold the upper hand on the rest of the division right out of the gate.
In talking about the East you cannot write off the New England Patriots as long as Bell Belichick is holding the clipboard. Even so, the Patriots have too many questions to be considered true contenders. My gut is telling me that Josh Allen and the Bills control the East again and win their fourth division title in a row but it is honestly the flip of a three sided coin. WINNER- BUFFALO BILLS
AFC SOUTH
Prior to the Jacksonville Jaguars winning the AFC South last year and ending their playoff drought the last two division winners won back-to-back titles and the Jags are heavily favored to continue the trend. The Tennessee Titans won the AFC South in 2020 and 2021 and before them the Houston Texan took the title in 2018 and 2019.
Anyone winning the South outside of the team in Northern Florida would be a major upset. The Titans are teetering with rebuilding as Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are in the last years of their deals respectively and appeared to have drafted their successors in this year’s draft. The Titans will always be a tough out under Mike Vrabel but just don’t have the pieces to take the division from the Jags.
The Houston Texans are in rebuild mode but their rebuild is not going to take as long as most would expect after the excellent draft class they brought in April. C.J. Stroud is expected to have some first year jitters as he gets adjusted to the speed of play in the NFL and while the team will struggle to pick up W’s this season I predict that Will Anderson, Jr. will be Defensive Rookie of the Year. The future looks extremely bright in Houston.
The Indianapolis Colts also snagged a play caller in the first round of the draft and also expect their franchise QB to struggle at times this season. Luckily for the Colts Anthony Richardson has Jonathan Taylor to hand the ball of to so to take some of the heat off of him. The Colts also lost a lot on defense this past offseason and will probably cement their place in the AFC South basement by week 5. WINNER- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
SEASON STATS
- McCash last week: (0-0)
- McCash’s 2022 W-L: (30-38) – 44.1%
- Stoney last week: (0-0)
- Stoney’s 2022 W-L: (36-32-1) – 52.9%
- Stoney’s money spent 2023: $5
- Stoney’s money earned 2023: $0
- SoBros last week: (0-0) – 0%
- SoBros 2022 W-L: (66-70-1) – 48.5%
Stoney Keeley is the Editor in Chief of The SoBros Network, and a Dogs Playing Poker on velvet connoisseur. He is a strong supporter of Team GSD, #BeBetter, and ‘Minds right, asses tight.’ “Big Natural” covers the Tennessee Titans, Nashville, Yankee Candle, and a whole wealth of nonsense. Follow on Twitter @StoneyKeeley
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