I am going to approach this ‘scientific experiment’ as non-biased as possible. First and foremost, I am not a fan of the Cincinnati Bengals nor the Tennessee Titans, but I do root for the boys in blue to do well since I reside in Nashville. It is hard not to get caught up in the frenzy of the NFL playoffs when your favorite team is on the outside looking in. Maybe next year, Saints. I wanted to take a deep look into both teams to try to figure who really has the edge in this playoff game.
I have spent the week listening to local sports talk radio, reading tweets from both fanbases, and even listening to Bengals’ podcast. It seriously took me 5 episodes of listening to 5 different Bengals podcasts before I heard the names A.J. Brown or Julio Jones. It will be a very troublesome day for Cincy fans if their team overlooks the two Tennessee wideouts like the talking heads of the podcast did. The pink elephant in the room is of course what Derrick Henry will bring to the game. The Titans still playing coy about #22’s return is just silly at this point. Everyone knows he is going to play. Everyone understands that at the time of player introductions Saturday at Nissan Stadium, there will be a sizable platonic shift when the Titans PA announcer announces Derrick Henry as the starting running back and the 69,143 in attendance lose their collective damn minds.
There is no way whatsoever that the Titans come out flat with the return of their best player and a home crowd that has been waiting years for this moment. Cincinnati comes in playing with house money after erasing a 31-year playoff win drought after beating the Las Vegas Raiders in the Wild Card Round.
Cincinnati allowed opponents to score first in 10 of their games and went 4-6 in those contests. On the other hand, they were an astonishing 6-1 when they scored first with the lone loss being a week 5 OT defeat to the Green Bay Packers where they gave up 16 2nd quarter points after leading 7-0 after the first. The Titans scored first in nine of their 17 games and went 7-2 in those games. Of the eight games where their opponents scored first, Tennessee came out victorious in 4 of them. It is very apparent that it is crucial to get out to an early lead as both teams have had difficulties coming from behind.
The Titans and Bengals are opposites when it comes to their offensive strengths. The Bengals are a pass first team that throws on first down 62.54% of the time compared to the Titans who only passed on 53.59% of their first downs. Cincinnati, led by quarterback Joe Burrow, has excited the Bengals offense along with rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The duo has combined for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns making them the second best QB-WR combination behind Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The Titans defense is going to have its hands full with trying to contain the Cincinnati passing game.
The Titans secondary allowed 62.90% of passes to be caught in 2021 so it is crucial for the Titans to put pressure on Burrow in order to disrupt the Bengals passing game. The Cincinnati offensive line is a weak link for the Bengals as they allowed an NFL high 55 sacks. Burrow was on the receiving end of 51 one of the 55, making him the NFL’s most sacked player just ahead of the Titans’ Ryan Tannehill. If Titans defensive ends Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry can put pressure on Jonah Williams and Isiah Prince, then the Titans faithful should feel good about their team’s chances of making Cincy one dimensional.
The Titans defense is vastly improved since their loss to the Bengals in November of 2020. The stats for that contest show a very even game was played except for time of possession. The Bengals held the ball just shy of 12 more minutes than the Titans. Time of possession coupled with big special teams plays and timely defensive ones by the Bengals were enough to guide Cincy to an upset win over the highly-favored Titans.
That was then and this is now. The Bengals haven’t been this far into the playoffs since January 1991 when Burrow was negative five years old. The duo of Burrow and Chase were ready for the spotlight after connecting nine times in the Wildcard game against the Raiders for 116 yards. The Raiders were the 26th ranked defense in 2021 while the Titans were 20 spots ahead of them at number six. The Titans were a very opportunistic team on defense by forcing 16 interceptions and if they can disrupt the passing game, they may be able to win the turnover game on Saturday.
While the Bengals have the advantage of the passing game, it is the running game where the Titans are the clear cut leader. All of the headlines, of what few there are, on the Titans going into this game are centered around what Derrick Henry is going to be able to do. Those headlines are justified since he hasn’t played in a game since Halloween when he suffered a Jones fracture in his foot against the Indianapolis Colts. Everything was all doom and gloom after the injury for Titans fans, as they saw a very promising season come crashing around them as the belief was ‘wherever Henry goes the Titans go.’ Head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Todd Downing never lost focus and were determined not to change the team’s identity just because they lost one player. A revolving door of running backs was brought in to try to fill the void of Henry’s absence. Future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson, Dontrell Hilliard, and D’Onta Foreman were brought in to combine with Jeremy McNichols in hopes of patching the loss left by Henry.
When the dust settled, it was Hilliard and Foreman who did most of the heavy lifting for the Titans running game. Tennessee rushed 291 times for 1,223 yards in the nine games played without #22. The team averaged 4.2 yards per rush without the former Heisman Trophy winner, basically matching his 4.3 before the injury. Titans’ fans have to feel good going into the game with the Bengals knowing that if the King suffers some rust that there are some princes ready to carry the load.
I feel pretty confident that everyone will acknowledge that Tennessee has the advantage in the run game, but that doesn’t mean that the Bengals run game should be overlooked. Running back Joe Mixon rushed for over 1200 yards and eleven touchdowns. Mixon is dangerous coming out of the backfield as he compiled 314 yards on 42 catches which put him in the top twenty of all NFL running backs in 2021. If the Titans are able to put pressure on Burrow, they have to keep a close eye on Mixon escaping from the backfield and busting one open.
Statistically, the Titans and Bengals are remarkably close in most categories. The Titans were 20 yards better per game in yards giving up than the Bengals. The significant difference between the two in yards per game was in the running game. The Bengals averaged giving up 102.5 yards per game on the ground compared only 84.6 for the Titans. Tennessee’s running back coach Tony Dews has to be happy to see that number. The point differential is another category that the two-toned blue led in. Cincinnati gave up 23 more points than Tennessee did in the regular season.
While Cincy has the edge in the air and Tennessee on the ground, the game could come down to special teams play. Neither team has really blown away the competition in the return game so it could come down to which team controls field position. Titans’ punter Brett Kern only punted 47 times in 13 games, but was able to down 18 of those kicks inside the 20-yard line. The place kickers for both teams have each missed five field goals, but the kicking game may be one of the most compelling stories. Titans’ kicker Randy Bullock spent the last four-plus seasons with the Bengals where he successfully kicked 85.32% of all field goal tries. The Bengals moved on from Bullock after drafting former Florida Gator kicker Evan McPherson in the 5th round of the 2021 NFL Draft. McPherson and Bullock have both kicked 84% of their field goal attempts.
On paper, this game is so evenly matched – so it may come down to who makes the fewest mistakes and what the other team can do with them. Getting off the field on 3rd down is crucial for the Bengals as Derrick Henry seems to rev things up as games get into the latter stages and having someone like him sitting on the bench getting cold can do wonders for their game plan. The Titans defense needs to play a bend-don’t-break style of play against the Bengals passing game and trying to manage the number of big plays in the air.
For everyone not living and watching this game in Tennessee or Ohio can easily see this as a flip of the coin type game. It looks to be a very close game. I believe that this is a magical year for the Titans and they are completely healthy going into the postseason with the WR duo of Brown and Jones finally healthy at the same time. The offensive line is intact with Taylor Lewan and Ben Jones ready to lead the charges while The King directs them. Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker will be keeping things in the middle quiet so Harold Landry III, Autry, and Simmons can work to get in the face of Joe Burrow. I believe the Titans win 31-20 and the fact that Mike Vrabel is 4-0 after byes leads me to believe the Titans will get the job done. They have outscored their opponents 132-50 in the four games after the bye week. That’s an impressive stat that makes me feel good about my betting decision.
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Listen to “Ep. 91: Bengals-Titans in the Divisional Round” on Spreaker.Steven McCash is the Lead Music Writer and Utility Man for SoBros Network. Steven is the host of the ‘Drinking With…’ podcast, and the pioneer of New Music Friday, highlighting each week’s new releases in the world of music in addition to the occasional live show review. He also pitches in as a Nashville lifestyle writer and football analyst (hence the ‘Utility Man’ title). Follow on Twitter: @MC_Cash75
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